My pick for tomorrow night’s Australian election is a bloodbath as the old established conservative and anti-environmentalist members tumble before the new force in Aussie politics. I refer to the massive, totally apolitical new green movement, allied to neither left or right and targeting the likes of Abbott. As a result there be a Labour government, to some extent by accident.
Labour leader Shorten is utterly uninspiring and certainly no Gough Whitlam. Back in 1972 after years of Labour wallowing in the political wilderness, Gough inspired the nation with his “time for a change” cry and new electioneering style fervour. I was there in the Opera House for his major pre-election presentation in which, revolutionary at the time, he brought one by one on stage, diverse sporting heroes and celebrities to urge a change.
This time is different. Now, as in Europe the most powerful and fastest growing political force lies outside the traditional main parties and is instead motivated for action on the global warming issue.
If I’m right it will undoubtedly influence our politics next year. Expect to see both our main parties compete with Green credentials. The void is there as the New Zealand Green Party, which should be the beneficiary of the new fervour, has a poor public perception.
On a different note, should tomorrow mark the demise of the likes of Abbott it will once again prove the truth of Enoch Powell’s famous dictum that all political careers end in tears.
It may be unhealthy for democracy but there’s no doubt that the wise man treats politics as a spectator and not participation sport. We see precisely this with local government, participation being dodged by the competent leaving a void filled by job-seeking non-descript types.
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Aussie election is a hard one to pick as the public spouts all manner of delusional nonsense to pollsters and then votes with their pocketbooks e.g. Gladys retaining power without much trouble in NSW State election. The best result that #ScoMo can hope for is staying in Government with a razor thin majority and having to do a few deals with petulant cross-benchers Julia Gillard style. As always there will be shenanigans in Labor seats in Western Sydney. Over here, I am hoping for a major backlash against the Greens and the Coalition of Losers in our 2020 election when the so-called “Year of Delivery” non-results comes back to bite them in the backside “bigly” (as President Trump would say).
Shy conservatives again carry the day. Labour was a ahead in 54 consecutive pre-election polls, and exit polls, only to ultimately lose. This is becoming a familiar pattern – Trump/Clinton, Brexit vote. Media are consistently giving a distorted view of population sentiment, overstating the draw of the hard left, greens etc and displaying a dismissive or even abusive stance towards anyone to the right (eg recent NZ media ‘campaign’ to try and undermine Simon Bridges, persistent attacks on David Seymour and generally uncritically fawning coverage of anything Green/Labour). Tellingly, the media are not carrying the crowd, they are simply narrowing their following towards the left and everyone else is turning them off as can be seen from their plummeting viewership. Is this contributing to the seeming global shift to the right?