Everywhere the war analogy is used re the fight against coronavirus.
Probably within a year we’ll have a vaccine. But all about us will be economic devastation, record unemployment and despair. History says that will induce two political consequences. One, as is evidently already happening, will be people placing faith in perceived “strong” leaders. That always ends in tears.
The other will be a cry for “fairness” and that too is occurring with some journalists writing forecasts saying as much.
“Fairness” in their eyes will be soak the rich. They don’t use those words but instead talk of taxes. If they were honest they’d talk of envy.
That’s what happened in the post second world war period, culminating in the high taxes, high unemployment, recessionary 1970s.
Then the world came to its senses, recognising a simple truth, namely that economic incentives actually work. Additionally, that governments are no good at commercial activities.
So if we’re to pull ourselves out of the economic morass lying ahead, don’t remove incentives from the doers and shakers who will start businesses creating products and services and of course, employment.
Mind you, if we must duplicate post-war history, then the Nuremburg trials spring to mind.
It will be recalled the most proffered excuse was, “I was only following orders”. That presumably will be Jacinda’s, she pointing the finger at her Health puppet-master.
Well, it didn’t wash at Nuremburg and they hanged the buggers anyway.
The other proposition getting a run is the pie-in-the-sky paying everyone a base income idea. It’s madness, once again ignoring the critical incentive factor which underlies all (not just economic) activity.
POST SCRIPT – Since drafting this I see Auckland University Professor of Economics Tim Hazledine has written an excellent article in the New Zealand Herald expressing similar sentiments (although he overlooked the Nuremburg angle).
No surprise there though; he’s always been a stand-out sensible bloke.
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Interestingly, David Zaruk said something similar in his latest blog: “The last section asked a simple question (one considered since Plato’s Republic): Should our leaders (our risk managers) deliver what they perceive the public demands or should they deliver what is necessary to protect them? Docilians expect their leaders to deliver zero risk on what they have been made to be be afraid of; they are not too terribly concerned about any consequences.” https://risk-monger.com/2020/04/26/post-covid-19-blueprint-pt-2-3-docilian-detox/
David Zaruk is a genius, and his website is awesome, but I do not agree on this point.
The docilians didn’t give NZ the most extreme lockdown in the world. Super intelligent ideologues gave us this terrible policy. The docilians would have been more than happy with an Australian style lockdown or less, especially if propaganda was employed to defend this stance, commensurate with what was dished out to defend the extreme lockdown.
If I’m correct, and it’s the super intelligent ideologues that are to blame, how did this happen?
“Hayek’s answer was that ‘intelligent people will tend to overvalue intelligence’. They think that everything worth knowing can be discovered by processes of intellectual examination and ‘find hard to believe that there can exist any useful knowledge that did not originate in deliberate experimentation’. They consequently neglect the ‘traditional rules’, the ‘second endowment’ of ‘culture evolution’ which, for Hayek, included morals, especially ‘our institutions of property, freedom and justice’. They think that any imperfection can be corrected by ‘rational coordination’ and leads them ‘to be favourably disposed to the central economic planning and control that lie at the heart of socialism’. Thus, whether or not they call themselves socialists, ‘the higher we climb up the ladder of intelligence . . . the more likely we are to encounter socialist convictions’.”
Indeed, eco-fascism, socialism and all other State planning exercises are driven by intellectuals, who overvalue their intelligence.
They have a utopian plan in their heads to implement, but their plans are thwarted by pesky roadblocks such as democratic elections, as well as institutions such as freedom, justice and property rights. For example, the Greens typically only get about 5% of the vote. Now, they hope to override democratic institutions, and forcibly implement their agenda.
Of course, one man’s utopia is another man’s dystopia…
Well that was courageous, Bob (and funny).
Economic literacy? I think the best thing for ‘the people’ to realise is that at base, it’s ALL about abundance. (Linked below was my take-it-to-the-people effort).
When the machines are in the hands of the private sector, they deliver 2x the quality at half the price. Unless the private sector is so massively regulated, it might as well be called the publically-run private sector.
https://andrewatkin.blogspot.com/2020/03/poverty-abundance-and-that-dreaded-one.html
We shouldn’t be surprised by any of this, our dear leader liked the Chinese Communist Party’s model so much that she copied it exactly. Ex school mistress Jacinda likes to be in total control of the classroom, she will be loath to abandon this particular modus operandi.
Where is Winston Peters in all this? He could stop it all right now by withdrawing his support for the labour party. Support he never should have given to them in the first place. He will be toast at the next election unless he does something right now.
We shouldn’t be surprised by any of this, our Dear Leader liked the Chinese Communist Party’s model so much she copied it exactly.
Wonder if the vaccine is the war? Spanish flu virus deaths correlate with the nascent pharmaceutical industry who were keen to use human soldiers as lab rats at end of WW1. The experimental horse derived meningococcal vaccine was sold to governments to protect their people. Carnage ensued. Some got wealthy, many died. Viruses were born as the tyranny of the white coated scientist began to pick up steam. Who knows? Not the experts that’s for sure.
The real reasons for the epidemic have probably not been told.
The real reasons for the war have not been told.
It was certainly a little different to what you have heard.
This can be seen by reading the history of the war. For example;
The world’s first jet fighter, the Heinkel He 178 was successfully flown on August 27, 1939. Heinkel demonstrated its capabilities to the Air Ministry on November 1, 1939, but Milch/Goering/Hitler showed no interest in it. An even more advanced jet fighter, the Heinkel He 280, was successfully demonstrated on April 5, 1941. In early 1942, it proved its excellent maneuverability and tremendous potential during a mock dogfight with a Focke-Wulf 190 (the best German fighter at the time) which the He 280 easily won. Consequently, Milch/Goering/Hitler were forced to promise a production run of 300 aircraft. However, the Jews were so successful in sabotaging the project that no He 280 ever saw combat. It is interesting, that as few as one hundred of these jets could have shot down every bomber sent (by the vicious British and Americans) to incinerate millions of German civilians. But Hitler didn’t want this. As far as Hitler, was concerned, the more dead Germans the better.
http://www.preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=1174
This is my biggest fear that I have been spouting on about in texts and emails to my mates “ who is going to pay for this “ ,in the long run.
The bill will be massive. Perhaps 100 billion,including extra government dept,ongoing welfare payments,loss of tax revenue and and loss of our second biggest export industry,international tourism
It will come down to a clear decision at election time.A vote for labour will be a vote for a series of wealth taxes. Land tax ,stamp duties,inheritance taxes,capital gains taxes ,and rates on property worth a million or more. Jacinda and James Shaw ,our two young rabid socialists,will see this as an opportunity to “ spread the wealth” and have a bankrupt nation as their excuse So watch out those who have done ok in life ,with hard work and endeavour ,you will be paying for their extreme measures in introducing this crazy lockdown
Nationals approach should be very different They should promise austerity in government spending Tear up the resource management act and cut red tape ,and use this situation as an excuse to make our country efficient and highly productive Start a mining industry ,gold mines ,coal mines ,phosphate mining the Chatham rise and dredging the iron sands off Taranaki Don’t inhibit farmer’s with regulation,let their industry grow and absolutely grant consent for large scale irrigation,which will increase production Always be aware of environmental impacts ,but don’t get ridiculous about it It’s so much better than it ever was anyway
And if we need to introduce a tax ,let it be an increase in GST ,as everyone has to pay their part in our countries recovery,and everyone pays GST Even the drug dealers and gangs
I wish I could believe that their will be a change in government,,but I don’t Bridges is unelectable,and. I fear a labour/ greens government, that will have catastrophic effects for a generation
I
The New Zealand lockdown occurred on March 25.
It was already clear that the Chinese situation had stabilized.
It was already clear that the 5,000,000 people who travelled to their place of origin for Chinese new year had hardly spread the virus.
They totally ignored all this while pointing to Italy.
In fact, the new cases in Italy had peaked on March 20 and it looked like the Cindy et al would miss the opportunity to institute a lockdown if they didn’t move fast.
So they moved fast.
So…. A conspiracy to impoverish New Zealand or something bordering on criminal negligence?
The Nuremberg Trials of course also featured widespread torture of witnesess. American judge Edward Van Roden wrote subsequently that confessions were obtained by beatings and brutal kickings. Many had teeth knocked out. In one report, of the 139 cases investigated all but two of the Germans had been kicked in the testicles beyond repair. This was standard operating procedure with American investigators.
And of course, many of these confessions and claims made at Nuremberg have since been quietly retracted. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=3514153
Everything you have been told about the world wars is suspect.
For example, did you know that;
The world’s first jet fighter, the Heinkel He 178 was successfully flown on August 27, 1939. Heinkel demonstrated its capabilities to the Air Ministry on November 1, 1939, but Milch/Goering/Hitler showed no interest in it. An even more advanced jet fighter, the Heinkel He 280, was successfully demonstrated on April 5, 1941. In early 1942, it proved its excellent maneuverability and tremendous potential during a mock dogfight with a Focke-Wulf 190 (the best German fighter at the time) which the He 280 easily won. Consequently, Milch/Goering/Hitler were forced to promise a production run of 300 aircraft. However, the Jews were so successful in sabotaging the project that no He 280 ever saw combat. It is interesting, that as few as one hundred of these jets could have shot down every bomber sent (by the vicious British and Americans) to incinerate millions of German civilians. But Hitler didn’t want this. As far as Hitler, was concerned, the more dead Germans the better.
http://www.preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=1174
Everything you have been told about the world wars is suspect.
For example, did you know that;
The world’s first jet fighter, the Heinkel He 178 was successfully flown on August 27, 1939. Heinkel demonstrated its capabilities to the Air Ministry on November 1, 1939, but Milch/Goering/Hitler showed no interest in it. An even more advanced jet fighter, the Heinkel He 280, was successfully demonstrated on April 5, 1941. In early 1942, it proved its excellent maneuverability and tremendous potential during a mock dogfight with a Focke-Wulf 190 (the best German fighter at the time) which the He 280 easily won. Consequently, Milch/Goering/Hitler were forced to promise a production run of 300 aircraft. However, the Jews were so successful in sabotaging the project that no He 280 ever saw combat. It is interesting, that as few as one hundred of these jets could have shot down every bomber sent (by the vicious British and Americans) to incinerate millions of German civilians. But Hitler didn’t want this. As far as Hitler, was concerned, the more dead Germans the better.
According to Keri Woodham’s show this morning 86%of the populace support Government measures thus far.Perhaps they’ve been bought off with the lollies,but I am sure no posters on this site would have accepted any ! More than ever the Govt needs to be scrutinized by a vigilant Opposition, especially when billions are been spent,and political agendas implemented.Go with the flow politics seems to be what we have.I think of Galileo and his outrageous assertion (to some) that the Earth revolved.around the Sun.This went against the current dogma causing a run in (to put it mildly) with the Inquisition.He had to recant.I see similarities here,poke your head above the parapet with a different view expect it to be blown off.
Everything you have been told about the world wars is suspect.
For example, did you know that;
The world’s first jet fighter, the Heinkel He 178 was successfully flown on August 27, 1939. Heinkel demonstrated its capabilities to the Air Ministry on November 1, 1939, but Milch/Goering/Hitler showed no interest in it. An even more advanced jet fighter, the Heinkel He 280, was successfully demonstrated on April 5, 1941. In early 1942, it proved its excellent maneuverability and tremendous potential during a mock dogfight with a Focke-Wulf 190 (the best German fighter at the time) which the He 280 easily won. Consequently, Milch/Goering/Hitler were forced to promise a production run of 300 aircraft. However, the Juice were so successful in sabotaging the project that no He 280 ever saw combat. It is interesting, that as few as one hundred of these jets could have shot down every bomber sent (by the vicious British and Americans) to incinerate millions of German civilians. But Hitler didn’t want this. As far as Hitler, was concerned, the more dead Germans the better.
Dear Bob, you do understand that wordpress censors comments to your site?
Just checking that this is OK with you.
They do a lot of censoring for sure.
Many of my comments have disappeared into the ether.
Or does it just function unreliably.?
There are a lot of duplicate postings , which is strange.
It’s unfortunate but assumptions about getting a vaccine are naive in practice. That said with the majority of the world is now focused on a single problem, the will may well exist to make such a reality.
Completely right to point out that great truth in life in that it always comes back to incentives.
Part of the way many of the fake-binary arguments I’ve seen are wrongheaded is simply because actors in a free market will make their own decisions. Stay open if you want but you can’t ultimately make customers do anything. It’s all connected. Voluntarism is cornerstone.
That said, I find myself unable to completely dismiss those with concerns about races to the bottom.
Some of the lessons important for next time aren’t about quarantines/border controls not working, but about not being too slow or unable to implement them. I’m tempted to go down a rabbit hole about ‘resulting’ i.e. discrepancy errors between decision making and outcomes due to good/bad luck etc. – but won’t.
The government isn’t so inhibited by all these various principles however. You could even say the fastest way to socialism is to just ban capitalism for months at a time.
Calls to eat the rich are emblematic of bitterness and envy – most egregious in the people already well-off by almost any standard except the peak. What most don’t seem to realise is that in any fair/free system – if for no other reason than just dumb luck – billionaires will always exist due to simple mathematical power laws.
A system is a fair one if it lets those at the top fail and allows others to rise up to new places.
Unfortunately a lot of problems can arise from relative wealth inequality, the steepness of that pyramid being the greatest predictor of male on male violence. It’s a staggeringly high correlation to a near perfect degree unheard of in the data gathering disciplines – see the book ‘Killing the Competition’ by Martin Daly. Crucially it’s ‘relative’ not when everyone is poor or everyone is rich. Rather easy to intuit considering at a certain point what happens when enough people have nothing left to lose and everything to gain.
Given all of the above and more – most of the problems we face are structural.
I too have been considering potential roads the world will head down, at the moment two in particular – autarky and debasement.
Autarky has a lot going for it – self sufficiency as a way to build ourselves out of this hole, far greater resiliency, etc. but there runs a strong risk of economic nationalisation. Still I would argue a base level of (ideally ‘private’) autarky looks to be essential, especially as many of the problems now are essential supply chains issues. How far this goes however quickly runs into a whole discussion about degrees of self-sufficiency vs co-dependency and efficiency etc.
Debasement is the bigger black box and grows out of the seeming inability of many countries to do anything competent and trying to print their way out of their problems.
Good to finally see mention of masks. In the current case masks are great example of something with a minor individual effect but a much greater-than-the-sum-of-it’s-parts aggregate effect.