Political journalists close to the action seem unanimous that Judith’s leadership of the Nats is over. It’s hard to disagree for plainly she’s not resonating with the public, as borne out by the dismal polling.
Given the government’s striking failures on housing, covid vaccinations and other key issues they’ve committed to, it should be an Opposition’s heaven. Yet they continue enjoying historically high polling support while conversely, the Nats are wallowing. Add the ACT polling to the Nats’ numbers and the situation is less dire.
Part of National’s problem is the perception they’ve been taken over by skybayers. New Zealand is nowadays a secular country, moreso with likely National voters and I know through hearsay this bothers many people.
Leadership is always a key factor in polling and if slightly diminished, Jacindamania still prevails.
Names currently bandied about to replace Judith are first Simon Bridges who has tidied up his previous abominable enunciation, and new chum, the nakedly ambitious, Christopher Luxon, both skybayers. Luxon’s credentials rest solely on heading Air New Zealand during an unprecedented golden age for airlines. That said he’s made no mark in his brief time in Parliament while in my view ran a terrible internal air service with non-stop hostess and pilot intercom babble and an infantile approach to safety videos. Perhaps he knew his market though as New Zealanders have always responded dutifully to bossiness, but the infantile Air New Zealand business carry-on anywhere else in the world would have seen them deserted by travellers.
It may well be the Nats should look for fresh faces drawn from their pro-active MPs such as Bishop and others.
Simon’s seeming problem is that in the last eighty years, no-one in either National or Labour has ever lost the leadership, then come back to reclaim it. That said, it happened in Australia with John Howard and Kevin Rudd. While the latter failed at the subsequent election, Howard went on to enjoy a lengthy reign on the throne.
But no-one in either National or Labour has actually lost the leadership then tried for a come-back. I exclude Bill English who was gifted it a second time, only to be thwarted by New Zealand First despite topping the polls. So history doesn’t really count in evaluating Bridge’s chances as he’s not yet used goods.
If nothing else ultimately the time-proven political pendulum will restore the Nats. But does it matter?
The answer is an emphatic yes. Our basic two party system relies on a meaningful Opposition to keep governments in check from excessive behaviour. That’s why the country should be indebted to Winston Peters for throwing the mantle to Labour four years ago. Twelve years in government is never a good thing and that is what he prevented occurring, in the process inadvertently rebuilding our two party system.
18 Comments
Not one mention of the talents of Nicola Willis. Listen to her in the House. She is a good foil to “Gummy Mummy”
Its hard to resonate with the public when the Media don’t give your comments airtime. I guess that’s what $105 million buys you. That has always been the problem for National.
But I agree that eventually the pendulum swings and the public will wake up to how awful ‘their’ Government has become and out they go. That can’t happen soon enough with the present lot. I don’t think I have ever seen such a bunch of incompetent’s. Well, ok, Auckland Council is the worst.
Making another Leadership change in National would be a mistake. Unfortunately the National Caucus have a few thick people in there who listen to the Media. Political Journalists are not representative of ‘us’ and being the woefully ignorant bunch that they are- they should be ignored.
As for Luxon, he is another ‘wet’ who is really Labour Lite. No chance of him differentiating National from Labour. And that wont win an Election.
Spot on David. The press is a serious and major problem world wide. Taken over by wet socialists straight out of Uni.
Just watch what is unfolding in the US at the moment. A tragedy in the making.
Couldn’t agree more. NZ is, I believe, leading the western world in terms of totalitarian governance. The media has been the communist party’s (Labour/Greens) propaganda mouthpiece since at least Clarks first foray as PM. NZrs are generally politically lazy, that is why successive govts have gotten away with what’s really happening which is truly scarey, particularly the speed at which the changes to our freedoms and democracy are now taking place; most NZrs are totally ignorant of what is really happening. Vitally important that National are solidly behind JC, and tight with ACT, to have any show going forward.
Bishop and Willis
Their best road is to start authoring policy.
Being good at criticizing doesn’t make a good mp. Just look at Kelvin Davis
Cannot disagree more about Winston doing us a favour four years ago It was an act of treachery and betrayal , by which he has paid the fair price of NZ first now being exterminated at the last election Now we have a hair brained socialist running the country,making a mess of it , and making radical agendas,like Maori sovereignty, and extreme green policy like banning gas soon ,and de stocking our vitality important agricultural industry !. Most sensible and informed people would believe NZ would infinitely better off if steady old Bill English was at the helm at the moment Winston has done a lot of damage
I also think it would be a mistake to change leader. Judith Collins seems a very ‘savvy operator,she had no chance leading up to the last election after Bridges and the next guy fell by the wayside. And yes, Covid played a large part in Labours re-election, although I’m convicnced that had the Nats been the Govt they would have handled it just as well if not better.
As an aside, its incredible that after all of the stuff ups, and outright lies, Labour/ardern are still polling so well. I hope that before the next election enough people actually think about what labour have/is doing to not vote for them again. It might take a real financial crisis..and that is on the cards.
p.s….how about robertson saying ‘ we’ve got a billion we haven’t spent on Covid’….WHAT? It’s not your money to spend grant, you borrowed it and you have to pay it back !!!
Chris Luxon will be the next National Leader. Judith is merely keeping his seat warm. Hopefully National will put him in about two or three months prior to the election, which was when Jacinda was voted in as the Labour Leader.
Its always worth remembering how unpopular Helen Clarke was. HC knew its more important to be respected than liked.
Judith Collins is as good a leader as National will get, her problem is the Press aren’t interested in anything but click bait or are just plain fearful of offending the ngati government tribe.
I am back in NZ for a few days and am quite surprised at just how woke, wet and childish virtually all of the media has become. The tiresome habit of breaking in to Maori and habitually calling the country Aotearoa is an affectation we could all live without.
I had considered returning to NZ but based on this visit Australia is so far out in front id be mad to stay.
Bob, I know you do not like AirNZ. You have been on record on a number of occasions stating the same. Chris Luxon, prior to AirNZ, was the Canadian CEO of Unilever which is no mean feat. Something he would need ability to achieve. Politically naïve at this time in his career but he is succinct in what he says. Yes, he is a skybayer but let’s see how much that affects his political ability.
Personally I can’t see Judith Collins leading National successfully through the next election. How much National’s lack of cut through is because of media bias is hard to determine at this stage.
I am an ACT convert as they have stuck to their principles and are not swung by popularity polls.
If NZ is a secular country, why are we succumbing to various sacred turtles, taniwha, waiata and karakia ceremonies, blessing buildings, dead whales and beaches etc etc ?
Yes, and not just that. “Green” values are essentially religious, this is why they make alliances with paganism, because basically they are paganism anyway. “Altering a landform” such as levelling a hilltop is prohibited – why? We have millions of hilltops, we haven’t selected a few that we want to protect because of some peculiar utility value – there is a blanket ban on altering any of them. It is impossible to do a new open case mine because of these pagan values – where on earth is the secular-enlightenment-values “utility reduction” in open-casting a hill mine dozens of kms from any potential viewers of it? We ended up with a few dozen dead miners as a result – in fact it was even worse than this, DoC would not even let the mining co do two air shafts because “too much surface disturbance”; nor would they let them do any access tunnel vertically, just the long horizontal one. But John Key National just let the Watermelons treat them as their doormat in spite of all the evidence to make an argument that the political balance has swung far too far against reason, logic, and enlightenment.
I was at a public meeting in Wellington once when John Ansell raised these things, and a prominent Green scoffed at it and said that was “just right wing conspiracy theory” – and a woman at the back went loudly vocal saying that she worked for the mining company and everything John Ansell was saying was true. The watermelons are shameless liars as well as anti-enlightenment; they regard their “cause” in the same way as a medieval theocracy would regard it – anything goes in maintaining the orthodoxy and the power and in suppressing heretics.
If Judith would just bring Crusher back…..I think they’d be in for a chance!
I wouldnt write off the rise of Skybayers just yet.
I just read Rodney Hides item on the carry-on at the Reserve Bank where subjugation to Tane Mahuta is the in thing. It seems everyone employed is expected to bow down to this lump of wood at the banks entrance.
Insanity……….
God help us if it is Luxon. He’s not a John Key. I can’t see Maori warming to him either. Maybe Winston will make a comeback…Winston and Jones.
The biggest problem National have is their policies appeal to the few, and getting fewer.
If they promised to dismantle the overseas owned monopolies that have made this country so expensive to live in, people like myself may have something to vote for. Another bold policy could be to bring in a turnover tax, so these multi nationals start paying their fair share of infrastructure costs. A higher tax rate for importers than exporters would help too.
Lifting the hourly rate goes someway to readdressing the balance; rather than cross subsiding wages with benefit top ups. There seems to be no guts or vision to confront the real issues, which is probably a sign the big boys have way too much control over the system.
The current very incompetent socialists have their woke acolytes and an adoring media, paid for with taxpayers largesse. Frankly despite all the gross ineptitude of Labour the National party aren’t offering us an alternative are they? Pale and stale sums them up rather well.