Senior Cabinet minister David Clark is reportedly about to announce his intention to stand down before the next election. That’s the first one down for me to win my $1000 bet.
My wager is with a government MP that at least 8 cabinet ministers and 12 Labour MPs will make identical announcements before the end of June next year.
The announcements will be accompanied by the claim it was always their intention to pull stumps next year to “pursue other options.” Some may even be true but most will reflect their awareness that the government will be landslided out of office next year and understandably with the cabinet ministers, after a stint in cabinet, reverting to opposition is deeply unappealing.
They will face the charge of rats leaving a sinking ship. I don’t see it that way. Political parties are not sacrosanct institutions and an MP’s first duty is to himself and his family, aside from which genuine pre-election resignations by MPs who’ve had enough are normal. What will be unusual this time is the number of them. But whether they resign or not they’ll be out anyway.
I’ve even got a $100 bet that Jacinda loses her seat. There’s a close to home precedent for this. When a government falls from grace to the degree Labour now has, the opportunity to target the leader is seized upon.
This is what occurred with John Howard who after 11 years as Prime Minister, saw his government rolled, but doubtless the biggest shock was he himself losing his normally solid Liberal seat.
12 Comments
Let’s just hope that Ardern doesn’t pull stumps and resign from parliament, so we are not deprived of the exciting possibility of her losing the Mt Albert seat. Surely this government is far beyond the ineptitude of the third Labour government you campaigned against back in 1975.
She has a 26K majority in Mt Albert. Hamilton W was a 21% swing I believe. Will need a far bigger swing for herto go. But if she did, I would love to see the look on her and Gelen’s face.
A terrible tale. His maiden speech stated he came into politics because of poverty and the growing gap between rich and poor. Pity it’s now so much worse after the last 5 years of power. Must be hard to sleep at night when he sees the current mess that he was responsible for as Cabinet minister in this Government.
The trouble is, that when they leave they have to make their leaving speech, spouting about all they have done for the country blah blah. When they leave they should just be shown the door, just like a wayward employee given the DCM.
I doubt Labour’s maori caucus will leave, though may have to settle for low back bench positions; as I cant see anyone else stupid enough to employ them…
Some wont get the pension yet.
What if the Maori Labour MPs see the writing on the wall and desert to the Maori Party. Then 7 Maori Party seats.
I agree. They play a very long game, and don’t care if they are in opposition. They’ll just sit and wait, ready to pounce next time
Where will these Labour members live after the election? There will not many welcome mats out there when they are looking for new employment. Kiwis have never experienced such blatant abuse of democracy, ever, and serious, long term damage has been done to what was once a proud Labour brand. To hell with these globalist fruitcakes.
As an old saying my Grandparents told me “Good riddance to bad rubbish.”
100% correct, besides why would they, only too happy to live off the Crown’s purse when it suits them
I can see the Labour Maori caucus jumping ship and joining the Maori Party.
The remaining Labour MPs will see the long servicers leaving and the younger ones will have to resolve themselves to losing a gravy train job.
Poto William’s retirement is a blow to National’s hopes of being elected into government next year . Nevertheless , so long as Nanaia Mahuta digs in and stays the course , Chris Luxon’s chances burn brightly .