The coming global depression, not recession, will not be virus-made but 100% man-made, due to absurdly mis-placed hysteria and surprise, surprise, an unprecedented and preposterous media beat-up. And in respect of the latter, refreshingly for once it was not the print media which on my assessment, world-wide remained balanced, but instead television which treated it like an invasion of Martians spraying deadly laser fire right, left and centre.
Let’s look at the facts.
Coronavirus is a highly contagious 4-5 day flu. Get that – a flu, not bloody leprosy. It has no effect on children but will kill the elderly because their immune system is pretty much shot. So too folk with other disabilities such as people with weak immune systems, through say heart or other organ issues.
The Brits floated an innovative and totally logical idea described as a herd approach.
Specifically, have the vulnerable, that is mainly the elderly, hide under their beds for a week then allow the rest of the population to be infected. They’d be over it in a week meaning normal life can be restored as the virus would now be non-existent. Sadly, under pressure, this sensible proposal has now been abandoned.
International travel could resume, perhaps heat testing incoming passengers, a process involving only a few seconds so as to safeguard any old folk they may encounter.
But let me repeat. Despite the creepy name, Coronavirus is a flu. It’s not the bloody black death, not the great plague, not leprosy, measles or polio, simply the flu.
My 20 year old daughter Claudia, working in our Glasgow office copped it. Doctors refused to see her as they said it was pointless. Simply go home to bed and see it through they instructed.
Reflecting back on it yesterday on the phone, Claudia admitted the loneliness and media beat-up were initial concerns. Thereafter she was feverish for a while but mainly just sleepy. When on day four she complained of a sore throat and coughing our local office staff brought her cough medicine, honey, some other over-the-counter throat soothing stuff and boiled sweets; ergo problem solved.
We own a beautiful Regency era town-house in a park setting. Despite being winter, after day four she bundled up in warm woollies and sat out on the balcony for an hour or so around mid-day reading. The fifth day and she was cured.
MY DAUGHTER CLAUDIA – AMAZINGLY STILL ALIVE
For clarification purposes, she’s the one on the left.
FURTHER OBSERVATIONS
China – Thanks to their highly effective, soon to end close-down, new cases in China are now virtually non-existent.
Italy – note it affected the affluent cold north but not the warm south.
Coronavirus doesn’t survive in 26 degrees or higher. To date it’s been a winter ailment and the southern hemisphere has been largely immune.
That’s about to change. As in China, I’ll wager in two months, it will be largely unknown in the northern hemisphere.
South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and Chile etc will cop it but so what? A week or less in bed but, with the northern hemisphere precedent, precautionary steps should see it minimised.
SELF ISOLATION FOR VISITORS
Jacinda has announced all incoming visitors must go into a fortnight’s self-isolation. The Aussies have now followed suit. How bloody childish is that, aside from its total inability to enforce.
Three attention-seeking MPs promptly advised the media that having recently been in Australia they were now in a fortnight’s self-isolation. How pathetic. All conspicuously fail my scout-master test I publicised vis a vis Bill Rowling in the mid 1970s, namely if one could envisage a politician as either a scout master or Girl Guide leader, they’d never really crack it in politics. I have no trouble in these cases imagining them in uniform.
That aside, why not apply the same self-isolation silliness to say Aucklanders flying to Wellington?
ADVICE TO THE RETIRED ELDERLY
Your best defence is to head to the tropics, such as Fiji. With the panic these destinations are offering give-away deals.
You’ll not only help yourself and doubtless have a good time, but additionally help Fiji’s ailing tourist economy.
So too Samoa and Tahiti but forget the Cook Islands or New Caledonia as they don’t get very hot in winter.
Another regional option is Cairns. Otherwise head to the northern hemisphere, be it Asia or Europe, it matters not, you’ll be perfectly safe.
BRAINWAVE
Given that the virus can’t survive in plus 25 degrees surely say 5 minutes in a sauna every few days would kill off any starting, or one would think, existing infection.
The difficulty with the already infected is the last thing they’d want if feverish, is to sit in a sauna.
We have a rarely used one at home but henceforth I’ll do a few minutes in it every few days, before, as this year’s agenda always was, heading to Europe with the advent of summer there.
AFTERMATH
When the virus news first broke a couple of months back I wrote on this site a piece headed Recession or Depression?
The former seemed unavoidable thus I was staggered when over the subsequent month various economists suggested the mere possibility of a short-lived recession. They’ve certainly changed their tune since.
I took tourism as an example, pointing out the New Zealand had circa 300,000 people in menial tourism jobs, such as hotel staff, air hostesses and airport employees. Thanks to the panic all were about to be unemployed and this has duly eventuated with Queenstown and Rotorua ghost-towns, as I predicted.
But extrapolate that to the wider world and we’re looking literally at figures in the realm of 100 million unemployed. The flow-on to other activities; shops, travel agents, restaurants, golf clubs, cinemas etc and it’s a 1930s type depression in unemployment numbers.
Airlines, the huge cruise ship businesses and numerous others will all go broke. They’ll need government investment, probably as equity, to survive.
Share-markets will crash to at the least half their absurd recent peaks levels; brokers will in their customary rationalising after the event, use euphemisms and describe this as “a correction”.
Meanwhile the hysteria levels soar as with ignorance and stupidity in the ascendency, no amount of nonsense goes unreported. But beyond doubt the principal offenders have been governments.
“Influential entrepreneurs call for school shutdown, border closure,” so headed a Stuff report yesterday.
Of the seven named allegedly influential entrepreneurs I’d heard of two. One a much publicised toymaker and the other Craig Heatley who’s claim to fame was jointly creating Sky TV nigh on 30 years back. But “influential”? Craig sold to Americans 20 odd years back and has been pre-occupied with golf ever since.
I’m disappointed to see him attach his name to this cock. Why close schools? Kids who get this bug, will sail through effortlessly. Credit to Education Minister Chris Hipkins and his Education Departments for making the same observation.
More absurdity followed with the hand-washing hammering. Soap won’t work we’ve been told, much stronger stuff is needed and often throughout the day. This advice to prevent catching a flu bug that isn’t actually here yet.
Cancel crowd events, don’t go to the cinema etc. etc. But it’s still OK for commuters to travel to work on crowded trains. – And so it goes, silliness, fear-mongering and hyperbole in the ascendency.
MY WELLINGTON OFFICE – All doomed
My company’s Wellington staff are in full panic mode. Why? Because we have an admin employee called Corona Amahau. Get rid of her, I hear you say but we can’t; she’s a maori and we’ll be branded racist, so Wellington director Sam Cooper excepted, they’re all bravely battling on knowing they’ll die soon.
Why is Sam the exception? He’s been hiding under his bed since the Kaikoura earthquake and would have a heart attack should he learn of the virus.
More maori criminality.
Corona Amahau from our Wellington office plotting to kill us all. She’s protesting and claiming her name is Corrina but no-one believes her.
FINAL NOTE
This pandemic is more accurately described as a Panicdemic, thanks to over the top government reactions.
CONCLUSION
An Epidemic of Irrationality
Since news of the coronavirus first broke vastly more people have been murdered or killed in traffic accidents, or drowned, and so on and on, than have died from the virus.
Indeed the number of virus victims, nearly all elderly or with serious underlying medical conditions who’ve been killed by it, are an infinitesimal number out of the wold’s near 8 billion population.
If I, an 80 year old with a poor immune system, not just through age but because of an underlying unusual medical condition, should cop it, then I’m a goner. So too if I cop a wide range of mishaps.
Adopting an economic Rip Van Winkle strategy, as is occurring, is an enormous blunder.