The incoming government will have such a huge majority as not to need New Zealand First.
I believe New Zealand First will easily crack the 5% mark as Winston, being half maori, alone feels safe addressing the big issue upsetting New Zealanders, namely outrageous co-government propositions, maori favouritism and the like.
He’s pulling sizable audiences of older folk, a sector noted for their high voter turn-out.
While the National-ACT coalition won’t need NZ First to form a government, they’d be mad not to give Winston a Cabinet post. Better to have him inside the tent, than sniping at them from outside.
The Labour opposition will be a mess, such will be their decimation and the new government may take the view that no-one (rightly) takes attacks from the Greens and Maori Party seriously. That leaves Winston, a problem easily avoided by including him, and possibly Jones in minor Cabinet roles.