When the virus crisis ends, probably in about a year when a vaccine will have been successfully tested, expect Italy to negotiate a withdrawal from the ill-thought Euro.

The single currency has been marvellous for Germany, giving that highly productive nation a discounted currency advantage.

Conversely it’s caused havoc in South Europe, bringing all the standard problems of an over-valued currency.

Already deep in the economic poo, Italy will have no choice but to leave the Euro and return to the Lira. If the EU forbids this then Italy will need to leave the union as well. Much the same can be said about Spain although its pre-virus economy was not the mess Italy’s is.

Return to a floating Lira and within 3–4 years Italy will be back on an even keel.





An encouraging prospect.


Italy is stuffed due to demographics. Average age of 46, >30% youth unemployment. Young people with get up and go get up and leave, and few will come back. It is in terminal decline and can’t be rescued.


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