As always, with elections there’s new parties popping up, none of which will register meaningfully in the polls. I include the Maori Party, now under the joint leadership of John Tamihere, in that category as I suspect it’s done its dash as the maori vote returns to its traditional Labour home. So that leaves the Greens, NZ First and ACT.
ACT is guaranteed success by the Epsom manipulation handing leader David Seymour a seat.
Seymour’s vigorous and intelligent announcements during the National Party’s leadership hibernation should see him bring in new list members. If the polls are to be believed that could be as many as eight.
But in a likely heightened main Parties contest, that number could dwindle as traditional National voters revert to a resurrected party under Collins. From a governing viewpoint it doesn’t matter as ACT, regardless of MP numbers, would align with National. That said, true blue supporters should cast for ACT as their presence in meaningful numbers will put some always lacking spine into any National government.
Then there’s the Greens. It may be wishful thinking but I’m hoping they fail so a true Green party can then arise. The current Greens’ policies are a mixture of extreme left and Green issues. They dilute their desirable Green message with their unattainable yesteryear leftism. In a tight two-way Labour-National contest they could miss the 5% cut but it will be close.
Finally, there’s NZ First. The pundits have written off Shane Jones’s seat attempt while the Party polls are disastrous. But Winston’s voters are an odd mixture who, as previous polls suggest, don’t emerge in standard polling samples.
I suspect they will make the 5% cut. Furthermore, I hope so for one reason. Arguably alone in our Parliament Winston understands our biggest employer, namely small businesses.
(Like me) Winston suffers from an extremely low boredom threshold, thus he never mixes with corporate types. Rather he genuinely enjoys the company of self-starters who run businesses such as restaurants, or self-employed tradespeople, professionals, retailers and the like.
In that sense, he fills a very important role for there’s no-one in the Labour ranks who comprehend this all-important sector and probably that’s also largely true with the Nats.
Like it or not, his claim to have acted as a brake on some of the coalition’s proposed madnesses is a matter of fact, albeit unknown to the wider world.
Incidentally, when it comes to a low boredom threshold, no-one in our political history matched David Lange. I knew him well. He literally detested the company of, in pecking order, first unionists, then Party electorate enthusiasts, then corporate types and finally the wider public. Most of all, he liked being with clever witty buggers and laugh at the world.
Muldoon similarly disliked Lange’s list with one exception. He loved talking to ordinary folk, something Winston shares.
In summary it’s likely the three critical minor Parties will fight over about 15% of the vote. Deduct another 3% for the other various start-ups and that leaves 82% for National and Labour to scrap over. A conceivable split is Labour 44%, National with 38% and ACT with 6%. Then if the Greens and Winston don’t make the cut it’s a hung Parliament.
So this election is very much in the lap of the Gods, or more specifically, dependant on the minor parties outcome. It’s certainly far from a foregone situation.
Nevertheless, if one was to bet on the outcome, it’s likely a second term for Labour for a single reason, namely Jacinda’s huge popularity.
Winston openly seeks credit for acting as “a brake on some of the coalition’s proposed madnesses”. He created this government and he wants credit merely for cleaning up his own mess!
Winston Peters took his time supposedly doing his due diligence on the best major party to form a coalition government with. He must surely have known what our current prime minister stood for and where her allegiances lay. I find it hard to believe that what we see now before us comes as any surprise to Mr Peters. When the government made a section of law abiding citizens criminals overnight simply because they owned lawfully obtained firearms and others that exercised their rights to freedom to view and read certain material that had been uploaded onto the internet, I waited for Mr New Zealand first to stand up for and defend the rights of all NZ citizens and residents because it is the principle that matters, not whether you agree with the subject matter or the objects deemed objectionable or even the circumstances of the hysterical “Not in our Country”. He said nothing, we said nothing. There’s an election in a few weeks. Do you think maybe now is the time to say something?
He went with Labour because they gave NZ First a $3 billion so-called Provincial Growth Fund that is in reality a slush fund for the loudmouth Shane Jones to dole out at his leisure.
I’m with you on the Green issue. I have always hoped they’d fail so a real genuine green party can emerge, ones who are interested in green issues only and will work with anyone.
If you never make a decision, you can never be wrong,.
Jacinda is never wrong
For all of your admiration for Mr Peters, I personally find it absurd that a man who failed to win a constituency seat was able to determine who was to be the Prime Minister of NZ. You believe that Mr Peters has something to offer that neither major party is capable of. If that is true then I would suggest that is a sad indictment of mainstream NZ politics.
Winston is this countrys’ true Maori Radical. He makes the Hone Harawiras’ etc look like amateurs (which they are). The way he has gamed our political system for the last 40 years reveals an understanding and mastery that is unparalleled. Sadly this has never amounted to anything worthwhile as far as the country is concerned. Today Winston is past his best..Clearly out of touch with the times and is about to take a drubbing at the upcoming election. Like very many great fighters before him he will discover that he has left it too late to hang up his gloves.. and will pay the price.
I look forward to some meaningful policy from both main parties. I’m sick of Peters having power. I was pleased with the first coalition gummint when I got exactly the coalition I voted for but Peters is a hell of a gamer but he just plays too many games to be good for NZ. He stays in the limelight, enjoying his own his penis in his hand, for way too long in forming coalitions.
Sir Robert, which mad Labour idea do you reckon he has been useful in blocking?
I hope he’s history though I would miss his antics as a brilliant political strategist but he has also done too many apparently corrupt about-faces to have any credibility left for me.
He’s the most effective liar I know, brushing off his blatant untruths by blaming the media (like a US President) and emerging with very little excrement sticking to him.
And can someone tell me what was he thinking getting involved – to any extent – with those UK campaign clowns? A last ditch effort due to his failing popularity?