My predictions for Labour/Green and National/ACT were astray by 5% thanks to the landslide.
The happiest people will be the pollsters who Auckland Central excepted, pretty much got it right, even with NZ First given historically they’ve understated that Party’s vote.
While the result was unsurprising, the sheer magnitude of it constitutes a watershed in New Zealand politics.
That said, if politics was a commercial activity, this was an election it would be smart to lose as the immediate future promises a grim economic prospect for governments.
But in democracies the reality of politics is as an opportunity for non-descript ordinary folk to temporarily become public figures, something they would never achieve in the outside world. The brutal fact that, in the immortal words of Enoch Powell, all political careers end in tears, doesn’t figure in their moments of triumph.
But it certainly did on Saturday night for Winston, Shane Jones and their colleagues, plus Judith and her decimated Party, and garbage of the Jamie Lee Ross ilk and the variety of new no-hoper aspirants wearing various no-chance political hats.
History says many of Saturday’s losers, in their quest for a public profile and income they’re incapable of otherwise gaining in the outside world, will doubtless lower their sights and target the next round of Local Government elections.
Now we’re left with the US Presidential election to fret about. The non-de-script Biden is irrelevant, rather it’s a for or against vote on the abominable Trump.
Whatever the outcome there will likely be post-election public disorder. The prospect of witnessing Trump being carried kicking out of the White House in the mode of Assange’s humiliating ejection from the Ecuadorian Embassy, would be a wonderful spirits lifting spectacle for the world to cap off a truly traumatic year.
On that note, now our election is over it’s surely overdue to call time on any more Ashley Bloomfield television appearances. A fitting finale which may indeed be necessary, in a similar Assange-like exit, Ashely also being dragged kicking and screaming from the television cameras. These daily updates are a ridiculous nanny-state overkill.
I’m amused by the election post-mortems for the Nats. Blaming Judith’s alleged campaign mis-steps misses the point.
I gave up on the Nats 30 years ago as a Party of individual liberty and the market economy. It’s why ACT was formed, namely to promote precisely these values which National has only ever given lip-service to. Since 1984 history says if you value those things then vote Labour. Better still vote ACT.
A reborn National Party should forget election post-mortems and concentrate on two things. First producing ACT-like policies and second, put a stop to the current surreptitious sky-bayer infiltration. I remarked on this last week and note respected commentator Matthew Hooton did likewise the following day. The Party has become infested with Irish Catholics and happy-clappy candidates.
This is certainly not representative of New Zealand. Take the Islanders, Maoris, Hindus, Buddhists and Muslims out of the equation, all or most being into superstition, but not being National voters anyway, and New Zealand is a largely secular country with probably at best only about 30% subscribing to supernaturalism.
For all the blather about MMP we remain substantially a conventional two party system; a basically don’t rock the boat conservative National Party which generally matches the public mood, set against a Labour Party promoting changes which only gains appeal about every decade, but still frightens voters.
Notwithstanding it’s current woes a dramatic National revival is still on the cards as the awful economic days lying ahead start to bite next year.
Hard times drive people to blame governments and look to Opposition options for salvation. That reality may see the Nats attract some decent candidates, which they can certainly do with.
Is there a good side to our current troubled world?
The answer is yes, given the right half full glass outlook, namely think of what it would be like if everything was perfect; no virus, no crime, full employment, no natural disasters, no administrative cock-ups etc., etc. In short the paradise promised by the skybayers, but, and there’s a bloody big but, a life of eternal boredom.
If eternal boredom = ” no virus, no crime, full employment, no natural disasters, no administrative cock-ups etc etc.” where do I sign up?
Re the final paragraph:
“And even if it were possible to permanently banish everything threatening—everything dangerous (and, therefore, everything challenging and interesting), that would mean only that another danger would emerge: that of permanent human infantilism and absolute uselessness. How could the nature of man ever reach its full potential without challenge and danger? How dull and contemptible would we become if there was no longer reason to pay attention? Maybe God thought His new creation would be able to handle the serpent, and considered its presence the lesser of two evils.”
― Jordan B. Peterson, 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos
The “Rally round the flag effect” is well known in politics. Incumbent popularity surges in an external crisis, and it takes typically more than a year to abate back to pre-crisis levels. National just need to stick to their knitting, not flounder around with circular firing squads (giving license to media pursuing their endless need for blood and dramatic crisis narratives) work on policy and be patient. Because if you wait by the river long enough the bodies of your enemy shall float past. Labour are staring down the barrel of the worst recession in 2 generations, that their covid policies are largely responsible for. So soon enough sentiment will swing hard against them and their consistently demonstrated ineptitude and inability to deliver on anything, just as it had prior to covid.
This election was fought and won, not on policies or performance, but on personalities. Not just that, but perceived personalities. The product of a prejudiced and perverted media, plying the people with a predictable parody of propaganda.
The people have bleated.,
Sir Bob, you could come on board with the eternal life gig and if you really hated it I’m sure you could request a termination….but seriously, it will be a life of peace not boredom….big difference. Boredom is fueled by inactivity and entitlement. The inhabitants of the new kingdom will fully understand they are not entitled to the new life they’ve been given and will have deep gratitude for it….it promises to be so insanely good. As a result they will not be idle or lazy. A prophecy from Isaiah states about the new kingdom
“They will build houses and dwell in them; they will plant vineyards and eat their fruit.
No longer will they build houses and others live in them, or plant and others eat. For as the days of a tree, so will be the days of my people; my chosen ones will long enjoy the work of their hands”.
Translation. Nobody’s going to come for your stuff, so you can achieve and not have it ripped out from under you. have at it as the Americans say.
Re the NZ election hmmm moving right along. Social change is becoming so rapid we won’t be able to recognize ourselves in a few short years….if we have that long that is. Re the American election, what ever the out come it will provide major prophetic sign posts which help to give one a sound idea of where we are in the stream of time. That will be my point of observation. It will be interesting to say the least.
Trump has told Steve Bannon that he will definitely run again in 2024 if he loses in November. As I believe that the idiot Dems (if elected) will totally destroy America’s economy within in the next 4 years, Trump would win in 2024 with a huge landslide.
In fact the constitution may well then be amended so that Trump could run for a third term or maybe a fourth?
So Bob, your Trumpian nightmare is just beginning, not ending.
Re. New Zealand you are spot on. National before Judith Collins has been dull and timid for years. Status quo is worshipped. A friend of mine joined National and pushed at meetings for low flat tax reform. He told me that he’d never seen so many blank faces in all his life. He eventually gave up.