As I’ve frequently written before, ignore political polls. Their format simply no longer works, not just here but everywhere. They’ve been wrong for a decade now in 70% of elections and often dramatically astray.
In my view the only things which will save the government is first, an escalation of the Ukraine situation to a major war. I won’t call it World War Three as we’ve never actually had any World Wars. For example, the so-called World War Two had almost no participants from two major continents, namely Africa and South America.
Nevertheless, should the current Ukraine situation expand to direct NATO involvement on the ground, such could be the global panic it could rescue the government. The chances of such an escalation in my view are currently about 40%.
The other contingency which would save the government is a major natural disaster of the Christchurch earthquake scale. With New Zealand that’s an ever-present threat.
As a volcanologist Professor told me over 30 years ago, it’s not a question of if, but when White Island explodes and takes out most of the burgeoning Bay of Plenty.
Crises of this scale always see a huge political shift in favour of the incumbent government. As I predicted, Hipkins is enjoying the standard new leader polling honeymoon. But he was a key player in the disastrously authoritarian Ardern administration and while dropping bad policies will help reduce the sheer rage now everywhere, such moves won’t rescue the Party from a crushing well deserved defeat in October.
Read these remarks in the context of my oft-expressed view that it’s been almost solely Labour governments which have shaped the good things about New Zealand.
But history will record the Ardern government as our most incompetent with a legacy of disastrous decisions. Not only was Hipkins a key player in those hugely damaging blunders but he lacks any leadership imagery and instead oozes an uninspiring scout-masterly zeal.
The bored political journoes will try and build him up but they’re preaching to a tiny audience, who still read newspapers or watch the state television channels.
12 Comments
https://www.ancestry.com/name-origin?surname=hipkins
Absolutely right Sir Bob.
Perhaps the Election will be closer, than commonly supposed. Sometimes Stuff allows comments on their articles, these make interesting reading National is not popular and not overly trusted. If current PM drops unpopular policies, he will be seen as saving the Country by many.Their continuation of existing policy on petrol and diesel,with subsidised public transport has been well received by many, that our State Highways,and roads generally are appalling is another story.Theoretically, the 700 million this is going to cost would have been spent on roading( I did say theoretically).Add to this the shortness of Public memory,some sweeteners before the Election, possible recession woes, and the results may surprise.It has been a considerable time,since we last had a 2 term Government,3 terms has been the norm..
One can but hope you are right…
I don’t read anything in tvnz polls, they can be easily slanted, trouble is the news media is on the governments side and we have only the internet to counter that.
As usual you are blind to God’s ultimate power to determine how we vote.
So God wanted this Labour Govt?
I would put the chances of an escalation of the Ukraine conflict at far less than 40%; more likely 20%. But yours and mine are just opinions. I am reading a book “Killer in the Kremlin” and what it makes clear is that Putin is unpredictable. He seems to have this desire/need to take things that belong to other people, from small precious items to countries.
It will be an interesting next 12 months in more ways than one.
Prescient comments.
Further to this its worth recalling Thatchers speech in 1978:
“Once you give people the idea that all this can be done by the State, and that it is somehow second-best or even degrading to leave it to private people….then you will begin to deprive human beings of one of the essential ingredients of humanity—personal moral responsibility. You will in effect dry up in them the milk of human kindness. If you allow people to hand over to the State all their personal responsibility, the time will come—indeed it is close at hand—when what the taxpayer is willing to provide for the good of humanity will be seen to be far less than what the individual used to be willing to give from love of his neighbour.”
That sums Labour up.
Lake Taupo showed promise recently. Would affect few Labour voters.
What are your thoughts on the picture at Waitangi yesterday of the Maori Caucus minus Mahuta standing behind Hipkins.
“The other contingency which would save the government is a major natural disaster …” – 2 February 2023
Yikes! They didn’t have to wait long for two to come along!