It staggers me that journalists take political polls seriously and call the forthcoming election a close-run thing. That’s rubbish. Labour will be swept out in a landslide, as I’ve been writing for the past two years. Putting aside the indisputable fact of the government’s astonishing ineptitude on so many fronts, there’s a simple reason for the coming debacle, namely the outrageous and seemingly endless maori favoritism announcements.

There was a time when political polls were accurate. That was in the highly politicised decade of the 1970s. Back then the vast majority of voters were either National or Labour and most Kiwis actually belonged to one of those two parties.

Muldoon used to boast that on a per capita percentage basis National was the largest political Party in the world. On face value that was correct, but again, buying a raffle ticket was often represented as membership.

Nevertheless, most electorates had a central elected committee and many suburban sub-committees  within the electorate. To be chosen as an electorate delegate for the annual national conference carried social prestige. Despite only two television channels, one was given across to total coverage of the conference over Friday, Saturday and Sunday and commanded large audiences.

The highlight on Sunday, usually in the late afternoon, was the leader arriving with his wife to a standing 5 minute rousing accolade from the 1200 delegates. Over that 5 minutes the leader and his spouse slowly made their way to the stage, constantly stopping to shake hands or wave at the various delegates they recognised. Eventually the uproar diminished and the leader rendered his 30 minute speech which when over, resulted in another 5 minute standing ovation.

If people were unhappy with their Party, they never switched sides but instead cast a protest vote for the Social Credit nutters.

In those circumstances political polls were accurate as it was possible to select accurate cross-section samples of voters.

Rogernomics destroyed that political order. Understandably a large section of Labour voters saw this as a betrayal. Conversely, numerous traditional National voters viewed Labour as the second coming, evidenced in 1984 when Labour again won Ohariu in a straight race without my 1984 intervention splitting the result three ways, this then Wellington’s richest electorate. And it almost won Remuera and Fendalton, hitherto National’s most blue-chip strongholds.

That turmoil ended widespread public membership of political parties thus today Labour and National now have relatively miniscule memberships and depend on donations and taxpayer funded advertising at election time. Additionally, Labour and National Party conferences now struggle for delegates to attend while the media barely report them.

In short, it’s now impossible to create a meaningful poll with supposed cross-section Party samplings as by a country mile the largest voting sector today are floating voters in the middle of the remaining National and Labour diehards section.

The last election illustrated this new situation when convinced that the Prime Minister and her lock-down had saved us all from dying, the nation lost its collective head in the Jacindamania hysteria and delivered an overwhelming Labour victory. It took about 18 months for the public to wake from this mass delusion and for Jacinda to become the most disliked New Zealand politician since Muldoon in his latter days.

All of this is further testimony to Enoch Powell’s famous adage that all political careers end in failure.

Now to the crux of the matter. Last week the Invercargill mayor spoke up for democracy saying he believed in one vote for every voter. Unsurprisingly Stuff led the charge of branding him a racist bastard with ludicrous stories of weeping woman on hearing this abominable hate speech racism.

The government has flogged so-called co-government, that is a system where 2% of the population, namely those with a minimum half maori ancestry, should as a block, have equal government power with the other 98% of the population. They want to nationalise water services to be administered on the same 2%-98% race basis.

Maoris and Islanders are to receive priority by the hard-pressed medical services for operations and so it goes with numerous other outrageously racist and grossly undemocratic examples.

The public are understandably seething over this insanity. I don’t get about much in New Zealand but I know plenty of people who do and all report the anger at this disgraceful racist bias, but stay silent for fear of being branded racist.

Periodically the media report the public’s concerns as a result of polling are say, first the cost of living, then perhaps inflation or crime (this incidentally disproportionately a maori factor). The reason the polling produces such results is those polled are asked, what concerns you most out of a supplied list of inflation, crime, the cost of living and so on. Try a poll including co-government and maori favouritism and I have no doubt those would top the list. Thus, aside from gross mismanagement it will be this outrageously undemocratic racism that will see the government decimated in October.

A final comment on polls. For the reasons I’ve explained, they simply don’t work anymore, specifically the vast majority of people now being open-minded floating voters. This was illustrated by the recent Australian Federal election when on election eve we were told the polls had it 50/50. The next day’s vote produced a landslide to Labour.

So too in Britain with the Brexit vote with the pollsters claiming it was 50/50 but the actual vote produced a vastly different story. Or in America in 2016 when on election eve Huffington claimed their independent pollster had Trump’s chances at 2%. But the next day, admittedly without a majority over Clinton, he became President, and so it goes.

For the record, I’m not a National Party supporter and last voted for them in 1981.

Labour governments have shaped New Zealand since 1935, albeit by necessity in their first two terms whereupon, the Clark government excepted, they go power mad. I vividly remember every election since 1949 and unhesitantly say the current government is the most incompetent and damaging in the country’s history. In a little over 3 months time they will be wiped out, to such an extent they may never recover.


Exactly right – well said.

I do so hope you are right. If I believed in any form of deity, I would pray that your predictions are fulfilled. Totally agree this is the worst government New Zealand has ever had the misfortune to endure!

I agree. We were all besotted by Jacinda’s management of the covid oubreak and her handling of the Chch shooting, but all of that has faded to inconsequence by the insanity that is happening right now. Giving (lending?) money to businesses to keep staff on when the business has to close is a nice gesture, but, it’s not good for the business in the long run. The big one is about not documenting where the money went … and the lack of honour with businesses not paying it back. Roll on the Lanslide! (excuse me, I’ll just move my house …)

The legacy MSM also has a motivation to claim that the election is close and could go either way, namely to maximise advertising revenue from both sides.
Political polls are skewed because they only canvas people who have the time and inclination to respond to pollsters.
Labour appears to be attempting a repeat of their 2020 strategy by frightening voters with the help of the Greens announcing unhinged policies that they have no ability to implement.
If National and ACT can continue to announce common sense policies, avoid self-inflicted scandals of the kind that are currently plaguing Labour and appeal to voters as a government in waiting, they should win by a comfortable margin in October. NZ voters deserve a much better Government than the current bunch of activists and incompetents.

Right on the money as usual. I’d also like to point out an issue about the racist health system – a policy that has been in place for a while but not received much coverage – namely access to covid anti-virals. Where a perfectly healthy maori with no underying health conditions gets free anti virals the moment they have a sniffle and test positive while non- maori need to be on their deahtbed befofre anit-virals are considred (otherwise your looking at a $1500 charge as I found out)

Raymond A Francis July 3, 2023 at 10:32 am

I agree, I also notice that the more left leaning media like to use the “Poll of Polls” because although polls are not helpful they can show trends.
While of course the Poll of Polls by its nature averages those out.

I can only hope you are 100% correct. Definitely the most incompetent I have seen. A complete diaster really. They call themseves progressives but in reality its the failed policies of the 1970s back again and worse. Plus we are really starting to see the results of multi generational social welfare dependency really starting to show.

An excellent article from you to start the week off Sir Bob & I couldn’t agree more. This rabble of deceitful Labour incompetents will in time be remembered for dozens of failings.

But the one thing that I think it will be remembered for the most is its evil six year journey of pitting New Zealanders against each other whilst they systematically destroyed the social fabric of a once great little country we were all once proud of.

In so many ways, it is now in 2023 unrecognisable to a vast majority of us & the current polls will, come the October 14th election result, be seen in hindsight to be totally inaccurate nonsense.

Bob I fervently hope you are correct

I can only hope your last paragraph is correct. Most people think I’m mad when I say I think Arden’s government is the worst since Muldoon…”Buts she’s lovely” they say. I’m sure she is, but that doesn’t change it at all.

    Yes I’m believing both National and Labour are over. Red and blue two sides of the same coin…I’m keen to cross section of people working together. I like what Freedoms NZ are doing.

MMP…The tail wagging the dog….the 2% believing in their sacred right to rule…..

I was hoping you would write a article on this.To give us lesser experienced mortals some joy and light, at the end of this seemingly lengthening, dark depressing tunnel.
Maybe I will cancel the Queensland relocation booking.

Except the MSM undermines everything right leaning person, avoids politically loaded, contentious issues and blindly supports their mate, Chippie.

Yes,many people want a change of direction, but I doubt a Nat/ACT coalition will deliver this.If they do get voted in come October, expect minor tinkering only. Mr Luxons recent policy announcement on sentencing discounts confirm this,that is no more than 40%, good grief.

I sincerely hope your predictions prove correct Bob and I would add that it would not surprise me to find that a significant number of Maori would agree too for I know many who are tired of the patronizing b/s this divisive excuse for a government presents us with everyday.

Couldn’t agree more with everything you said Sir Bob.

It would be interesting to hear what Norman Kirk or Sir Rob Muldoon would make of NZ as it is now – I suspect they would have no time for Aotearoa.

Same scenario will follow in Australia as ALP power trip already has Aussies questioning WTFDWD?

SRJ is again completely correct. The final paragraph about the destruction of Labour as a party movement is the most prescient. Labour has been struggling with its raison d’etre for some time and now only appeals to the “anti-everything” fringe elements.
Perhaps not as bad as the MAGA cult of personality, but not far from it either.

I hope it also spells the last throes of the legacy media who’s cheerleading and complicity in this government has been a travesty.

I agree with the comments but the scary thing is “How do we get the country back on an even keel”. Is even possible given the traction already gained by others to achieve this?

Polling as a predictive tool for gauging opinion has clearly had its day and the main reason for this is the now pervasive influence of social media. Attitudes and values are under constant daily attack and individuals cannot be relied on to hold consistent views…which is why personalities play an even bigger role than they once did…

For the love of God, I hope you’re right, Sir Bob. The prospect of a Labour/Greens/Maori Party win is distressing, to put it mildly.

Absolutely agree with your comments,as a part Maori I am ashamed of these so called iwi leaders. I am tired of the constant ‘maorification’ of everything. As for Labour I hope this election finishes them. To be honest Luxon also bothers me. I feel very sad for my New Zealand.

Tony Tony Gilbert July 4, 2023 at 9:02 pm

Thank you Bob, you echo my sentiments and I hope a lot of the wrongs can be righted.

Councillor Ray Chung July 5, 2023 at 7:28 pm

Good article Sir Bob, we just had a survey of what people want in our LTP (Long-term Plan) in council and at the very last place on a 40-item metric was more Te Reo being forced down our throats! I suspect that if we had 100 items on the list, it’ll still come last.

Good article.
I so hope your right.
Yes, if you remember school and those branded ‘the teachers pet who was favoured above any other class mates’ that in the end it was not good.
I recall a tv debate with Judith Collins and Phil Twyford about housing. Funny, you don’t hear so much from Phil these days.
The Labour coalition is enough to make New Zealanders ill.

At the election people who turn up to Party vote have to choose MORE OF THE SAME or WE NEED TO CHANGE. Electorate vote is who is the best candidate for the job. Many Labour voters will simply not bother to vote. That’s not true for those who want CHANGE.
Bob is correct and with Labour now polling just 24% they will bleed 1% a week dropping to 20% when polls open. Labour could score in the teens.

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