OUR POST-WAR POLITICAL HISTORY

Since the first Labour government’s demise in 1949, thereafter came three successive National election victories, then the second Labour government for a single term from 1957-60.

This was followed by a 12 year Holyoake/Marshall National government, then again, a single one term Labour government.

Next came a nine year National (Muldoon) government and then Labour for a miraculous two terms 1984-90, which ended badly with the party torn apart by policy factionalism.

Once again followed a three term National government (Bolger/Shipley) 1990-99.

Then along came Helen Clarke who was determined to break this woeful Labour failure record. She succeeded by acting in so many ways like a National government and managed nine years.

But in 2008 the country reverted to type and we got another three successive National election victories. It would have been four and possibly finally marked the death of Labour given the state they were then in, was it not for Winstons’s intervention, which he, a natural conservative, came to deeply regret.

As it transpired, that unexpected Labour government managed two election victories before being utterly routed in a landslide, having delivered up the most incompetent administration in our history.

All of this can be summed up by saying history shows the public like the stolid, somewhat dull, don’t rock the boat, centralist administrations which National represents. So they give them three terms then think, “time for a change” and boot them out to refresh, before quickly restoring them back in office with many new faces and a sense of relief to be rid of Labour’s factionalist activist turmoil.

MMP has not greatly changed that pattern of the post-war years. The collectivist mentality which underpins the left voter can more accurately be described as a dependency mentality, which leads to absurd hero-worshipping of their leaders, never better evidenced than the embarrassing Jacindamania period.

With the exception of Muldoon for a period in his mid 1970s heyday no National leader has ever been hero-worshipped.

So what of the future?

History says National will win comfortably in 2026, moreso as the current Labour leader, Chris Napkins, or whatever his name is, is distinctly un-hero-worshipable.

But here’s a possible scenario which could see the first ever two term National government.

Imagine a Labour Party, after another defeat in 2026, now led by Arena Williams with Barbara Edmonds as her deputy. They would be a devastating duo with across-the-board immense imagery appeal.

Arena is a stunner, possessor of a law degree, mother of two and married to a lawyer. Her mother is a GP and her father is Sir Haare Williams, an acclaimed educationalist.

Always beautifully dressed and civil in the House, she presents in raw contrast to her scruffy tie-less, non-descript male colleagues.

Barbara, hitherto a tax lawyer, mother of eight and of Samoan ancestry, with a great back story of perseverance against tough odds, is acknowledged across the political divide as a very competent and sensible finance commentator.

Those two could captivate the nation and lead the Labour Party to victory in five years time. But to last more than a single term in their always faction-ridden party, they’d need to take a lesson from Helen Clarke and her National-like approach to not rock the boat.

And therein lies the test for having achieved office they may ask themselves what’s the point if they’re simply going to enjoy being the government but otherwise do nothing radical. It’s a hell of a dilemma.