Have an election today and the government would bolt in, primarily because of Jacinda’s star power induced by the media’s obsession with her. But the election is six months away and then, I’m picking a change of government.
First, to clear the air, I like Jacinda and don’t wish the government’s demise. Long before there was any thought of her rise I admired her and Julie Anne Genter more than any other MPs. That’s because when I occasionally tuned into Parliament and they were speaking they did so enthusiastically, arguing for initiatives they thought beneficial, without ever resorting to the customary and tiresome abuse of the other side. This I found refreshing.
Second, perhaps surprising imagery-wise, I’ve voted National once in the last 40 years, that in 2014 as I was alarmed at the prospect of a Cunliffe Prime Ministership so don’t assume I’m writing this as a closet Nat.
The single issue facing the world currently, and I emphasise currently as it won’t be in a year or so, is the coronavirus crisis. Seemingly overnight it went from a detached China event to a dominant global one. All governments should have anticipated that possibility. After two months our death statistics are a standout low in the world but our hopeless media, who if they did their homework should not have been surprised. Instead they ludicrously attribute this to Jacinda’s leadership. In fact as I shall show, she’s made some awful blunders.
WHY HAVE WE PERFORMED SO WELL?
Over the last six weeks I’ve read three similar articles in the serious European press, the latest, in the world’s best newspaper, namely The Financial Times about 3 weeks back. All predicted an easy ride for New Zealand. If you want to dodge the virus and remain in a modern developed nation then shift now to New Zealand it advised, pointing out that New Zealand, has stand-out virus-combatting advantages. It’s the world’s most remote nation, an island country, thus easy to monitor visitors and a small population. Our only city of size (the virus primarily hits elderly city crowded environment dwellers) is substantially suburban without intensive occupation.
ITALY AND SPAIN
The focus of media attention has been on Italy’s and Spain’s high death rates. That’s easily explained, namely cultural factors.
First, as is often a source of teasing, Italians and to a lesser extent Spaniards remain at home until marriage, often into their 30s.
In New Zealand, Australia, Britain etc our 20 year olds are off flatting, to the mutual delight of them and their parents. Thus Italian and Spanish households frequently comprise three generations, an alien proposition in New Zealand.
As said, victims are the elderly and specially those with health conditions such as a weak heart etc. That’s a fairly common state of affairs for folk in their seventies onwards.
Furthermore in the big Spanish and Italian cities most folk live in intensive occupation high-rises which is where the deaths have occurred.
It was world news last week when a purportedly healthy 15 year old French girl succumbed. I’d wager an autopsy shows an underlying condition, such as a weak heart which would otherwise only be revealed should she say have taken up squash. That’s not an uncommon phenomenon, specially with vigorous sports.
But there’s another critical difference between New Zealand and Italy and Spain. The latter two countries are not reproducing themselves, thus their average age is significantly higher than here with a much greater proportion of vulnerable elderly folk.
That collapsing population is true of other European countries such as Germany for example. But they’ve compensated through large-scale migration. Germany has 4 million citizens of Turkish ethnicity plus many others.
A further factor distinguishing these two heavily hit countries from ours is they’re host to millions of northern European retirees, that is elderly sun-seeking folk who have opted to live there, albeit not in the vulnerable cities, but nevertheless may well be contributing to their hosts fatalities figures.
Japan and Korea are also not breeding replacement figures but again a cultural factor may apply. While both nations enjoy longevity, indeed Japan has the world’s longest life expectation, thus a high ratio of elderly, they customarily don face masks in winter to avoid colds and the flu and are also highly disciplined people.
In New Zealand, Australia and Britain, having shed their offspring off flatting, our older folk willingly see out their years together. As said, that’s not the way in southern Europe, thus their elderly are exposed to the virus to an immensely greater degree.
Our population of 5 million is spread over the size of Great Britain with its nearly 70 million people. Again, another huge advantage when it comes to infection contagion.
With our major export earner of tourism now history for some years to come, the balance of our trade involves bulk goods such as dairy, meat, wool and timber.
With say Britain, it involves intangible things to a much higher degree, such as insurance and finance, these causing a heavy interchange of people travelling. Consider the current Brexit negotiations with the European Union. The major issue is how to treat the millions of Brits living either temporarily or permanently on the continent and conversely, the millions of continentals living in Britain. So with tourism gone plus our remoteness, we have comparatively little people traffic, a greatly reduced contagion risk.
CONCLUSION
While so sudden was the virus arrival, we now know dealing with it for us was a cakewalk compared with most other nations. Mind you, if European journalists could write that about us as much as three months ago, then we should have known. But seemingly we didn’t. Six weeks ago at a small dinner party I remarked to three of our most senior government figures, “get ready to write a huge cheque for Air NZ”, the response – puzzlement.
HOW HAVE WE DONE?
Contrary to some of our Jacinda-obsessed non-analytical media, not very well.
We’ve wrongly followed overseas practices to the letter, indeed mostly to a more extreme degree. The advantages we started with meant we need not have gone that far and the economic cost will be enormous.
When the lockdown ends our major employer category, namely small and medium sized businesses will not simply start up again. Instead, a high percentage will have gone broke.
A Dominion-Post investigation revealed 400 Wellington restaurants are pulling stumps for example. They’re broke.
But economically it’s far wider than cafes. Everyone other than company receivers will suffer. The tourist related businesses; hotels, flights, travel agents, motels etc. etc. employing circa 300,000 people are gone. That’s not the governments fault but all the more reason for some common-sense with the balance of our economy which was sadly lacking.
Some economists are talking 10% unemployment. I hope that’s true but will be very happy if it’s only 25% although I expect for a time, an even higher figure.
Confidence and morale will be terrible. For example, how many architects do you suppose will be busy and therefore the construction industry. People build in good times not during, as the IMF have claimed is about to occur, a depression worse than the 1930s. People will hoard their money, driven by fear. A new car, normally an indulgence, will be put aside. The car sales industry is in big trouble, so too for similar reasons the house sales business. New shoes, clothes, furniture? You’re kidding, and so it goes. Employment agencies will have no employer customers but a huge number of jobseekers on their books, a complete reversal of six months ago.
There was never the need for such a severe approach in New Zealand, rather we just needed to propagate the hand-washing and maintaining distant measures. As for the elderly living at home, a volunteer scheme to do their shopping and take them for outings in a bubble situation with their carers, would have been enough. The goal should have been to get everyone back to work as soon as possible. Now thousands of jobs have gone needlessly.
THE FOUR WEEKS LOCKDOWN
I fit the danger category with my age and a medical condition that would see me a goner in days if I got the virus, which of course could still happen. I’m supposed to be in Paris now, furnishing a luxury apartment and discussing a library with an architect, then on to Scotland golfing, but I didn’t have to be ordered to instead go into isolation. Common sense dictated that. Furthermore I’m thoroughly enjoying it with just my partner and me in 50 acres. But what of the low-income punter with three kids in a state house? Is it any surprise to hear of the avalanche of family violence, of the women’s refuge overflowing etc?
The government seemingly gave no thought to that but instead mindless aping Britain, and Australia’s quite different situations created a ridiculous array of totally unnecessary busy-body rules as never before in this country history. Let’s examine some.
LOCATION – You must lockdown in your home but not a holiday home. Why on earth does it make any difference? It certainly does for the occupants as a change helps tolerating it. Instead the police inspected cars over Easter, turning back those with suitcases.
EXERCISE
1) You may go for a walk but only in the vicinity of your home. What bloody difference does it make if you walk for an hour round and round the neighbourhood or a more interesting one of changing scenery. So too with cycling.
2) You cannot go swimming in beaches. Why? Because you’ll tie up police resources if you drown. Someone drowns roughly once a week in New Zealand, mostly in summer and in boating mishaps or rivers. So dozens of policemen have roamed our beaches to watch out for sinners. Madness! In the hugely improbably event someone drowned in Mission or Oriental Bay it’s an ambulance issue.
PURCHASING – You may buy food but only in supermarkets. The result; all day queues. Obviously the more food outlets the better but the half-witted government had butchers, corner grocers and the like closed. In the process they’ve destroyed numerous small businesses.
DRIVING – You must only drive for an approved purpose, i.e. food or pharmacy purchasing. What nonsense! Thus slowly going mad, confined in a small house families, were denied the relief, while still maintaining their bubbles of an outing in a car.
FISHING – Banned. Why? We’re not told. So a bloke surf-casting alone on a beach, apart from the mental relief of escape, and the possibility of fresh food, constituted a massive health threat to the community. It should have been encouraged.
GOLF – Ban the groundsmen working despite them sitting alone on tractors in a massive land expanse. They doing that was ludicrously deemed a health threat to everyone. Golf courses already struggling now faced ruination.
Playing golf alone or in pairs should have been encouraged. Simply close the pro-shop, café and bar. Two days ago this absurdity re the employees, was lifted but playing is still prohibited.
All of these lunatic rules were mindlessly copied from the Brits whose 70 million people in a land the size of New Zealand, raised hugely different contagion issues.
Nevertheless, in Britain they’ve now been relaxed after a series of mad Police boss declarations.
The British Police commanders (not the policemen) have featured in a series of shocking judgement scandals in recent years. Their reputation is deservedly appalling.
Last week the North Hampshire Police boss, a blowhard called Nick Adderley, announced they’d be raiding supermarkets and inspecting shoppers’ trollies to see if they’d bought any non-essential items with their groceries.
That was enough for the aptly named, no nonsense Home Secretary Priti Patel (why can’t we have Ministers who look like her?).
Priti has form in putting bighead public employees in their place. She not only kicked this idiot’s head in but the following day extended shopping to all food outlets, newsagents, corner stores, hardware shops, hairdressers (one customer at a time) and many other activities and told the public they can buy what they want in the supermarkets. Here, purchasing magazines was declared a danger.
We seemingly have no grown-ups in charge.
DOCTORS – Visiting GPs was banned. How much suffering has that caused to people with medical problems? GPs earn middle class incomes, those not high in New Zealand thus they’re all now surviving on welfare to exist, this in a health crisis for God’s sake. It’s Kafkaesque.
CONCLUSION
The government lost all sense of proportion in their handling of this crisis. For example, the World Health Organisation advise that up to 600,000 people annually die of the flu, most I suspect in the 3rd world.
The government should have recognised early that the problem was one primarily affecting the aged and infirm. A lockdown for a fortnight points the finger at the governments naivety.
I like Labour politicians. As I’ve always said, you want a Labour politician as a dinner guest and a Nat as a neighbour, (assuming you have a high boredom threshold).
But in fairness, the Nats do understand small business; Labour don’t.
Roger Douglas made this observation about post-war incoming Labour governments. He wrote that their unawareness of practical life and governing experience made them too reliant on advice from senior public servants and academics. Instead, he claimed, they should follow their own intuition.
There’s a world-wide political swing to the right to an extent that has alarming dimensions. But it’s understandable in times of crisis. By election time the Jacinda aura will be dead in the water as she learns the truth of another famous political adage, namely Enoch Powell’s correct but sad assertion that all political careers end in failure.
THE FUTURE
The IMF say the world is heading into a 1930s depression. I believe them.
By the time the elections arises we’ll be wallowing in despair with numerous small and medium sized businesses (our major employers) destroyed and unemployment levels that don’t bear thinking about.
Borrowing billions to dish out is no substitute for people working.
The government should end the lockdown forthwith, stress the social distancing and hand-washing rules and try to minimise the damage. Then concentrate their protection efforts on the vulnerable, namely the elderly.
THE ELECTION
As Clinton famously remarked, “It’s the economy stupid” and so it’s always been.
The well proven adage that oppositions don’t win elections, rather governments lose them will come into play in the pervading gloom.
THE GREENS
In a climate of deep economic despair the Greens message will seem irrelevant and their concerns esoteric. That’s another nail in Labour’s coffin should they lose their coalition partner, as I believe they will. There’s an irony to that as with the global shutdown and little vehicle activity, reports elsewhere talk of the new found clean air and visibility.
My hill-top home has views of the entire Wellington harbour and Hutt Valley. Despite fading eye-sight, for the first time in the 51 years since I built it, I can now clearly pick out the individual buildings on the Wellington waterfront and Oriental Bay, 20kms away.
NEW ZEALAND FIRST
I won’t be surprised should New Zealand First survive but that won’t be enough to save the government. I say that as Winston and some of his hitherto self-employed MPs understand the realities of life and will begin speaking out.
By contrast, Labour politicians, typically academic, union or public service type backgrounds and view the world in idealistic ways, frequently ignorant of the realities. That has merit when changes are needed but is hopeless in earthy situations such as we now face.
To at least reduce the harm being done the government should drop to stage 2 immediately and a week later, with heavy propaganda about hand-washing, maintaining distance etc., get those still with jobs back to work.
This will result in more virus outbreaks but people get over it. It’s the vulnerable elderly who need the close attention. With every nation planning to borrow billions of dollars, once again the printing presses will be busy. But it won’t be inflationary. The Chicago monetarist theory was always silly. Inflation is solely caused by demand exceeding supply and in a shell-shocked world with mass unemployment, demand will be miniscule. In the space of a few months all the certainties of everyday life have been turned on their head. Make no mistake; politics will not be an exception. I’ll be abused for this but come back in six months and tell me I’m wrong.
251 Comments
React or do not React. There is no “Over-Reaction”.
I think it disingenuous to say that the government over-reacted.
They reacted.
They used the information that was available to them and extrapolated it. So it is not fair to judge the level of reaction in hindsight. Not for NZ, not for anyone. No reaction, or a delay in reaction may be open to some criticism, but the the level of a reaction should not be second-guessed so easily.
That said it is the ability to get information, process it and then act on the resulting data that really makes the difference. In combat you want to have an idea of what you want to achieve but if you plan it out “just so” you will likely lose your way as elements outside of your control influence outcomes and the narrative. So the effective leader knows what they want to achieve, takes in all the information they can, seeks opportuinities to gain an advantage and limit actions that would lead to a disadvantage.
Thus the real key will be how deftly this government responds to new data. Personally I had been following what was happening overseas, and felt that a four week lockdown would likely be insufficient. But I am quite impressed with the impact we have seen so far, and I now believe a shorter lockdown might be possible.
At this point I am willing to give our government the benefit of the doubt, and strong marks for taking action. They certainly seem more decisive and effective than our media appear to be… But that would be a post of its’ own.
Good story. Except that the Government will be able to pad out the story and the Coronavirus project long enough to cruise through the election campaign. They are so fortunate to have that bunch up against them. Bit like Trumpie having 2 grossly corrupt dishonest unelectable Democrat presidential candidates in a row against him!
If Bob Jones approves of the imbecile Ardern and Julie Anne Genter he has well and truly lost his acumen.
ThT is a fact in Gentas case,. She is a misfit and totally irrelevant
Too much speculation, hypothetical scenarios and false equivalencies. Who knows what would have happened, or what could have been, to pretend otherwise is foolish.
Too much speculation, hypotheticals and false equivalencies.
No one knows what could have happened had we not taken the measures we did and to pretend otherwise is foolish. If the world is about to descend into a great depression then the cafes in Wellington and tourism would feel the pinch regardless of our domestic policies.
Maybe you should re read the article. Bob’s piece was his opinion and he made those along logical lines. You sound like a Jacina fairy?
Give it some time and see where our economy sits and how the familys are affected by what seems to be the cracking of a walnut with a sledge hammer with the ferocity of the lockdown and as Bob predicts it’s overdone effects.
Do you have a prediction…….. any prediction?
I don’t know you personally so I will address you As Sir Bob if that’s ok. I won’t admit that I’ve always really enjoyed your writings (but I always have anyway). It’s all so bloody simple and so bloody obvious! I will make one comment only. The death total in NZ is 9 (I predicted 10 a couple weeks ago) and they are all OLD people nearing an inevitable death. What I want to know is WHAT DID THEY DIE OF? I simply do not believe that the cause of death was covid19 (I want to see proof , but I won’t) which is something that cannot be specifically identified by current tests and I am firmly convinced that the kill rate figures being internationally produced are bullshit – way higher than the actuals. Simply put, the fatality rate can only be arrived at by having two accurate determinants 1/ the death rate from the diseases 2/ the number of people who have been infected. Science doesn’t even have an approximation of the totals for either, so, based on this ultra flimsy information, someone has decided to wreck the economies and social institutions of many countries and wreak general havoc extensively. WHY?????
Well put. And right on the money. If only everyone pondered this point.
by Gregory Mannarino
We have entered a new paradigm, one that for years I have outlined would occur, and, now, it is here: an era in which massive debt expansion, on an unprecedented scale, is taking place.
What we now are witnessing is a global takeover by the new World Central Bank, formally known as the Federal Reserve. Parabolic debt. An environment that has fulfilled the multi-decade plan of the Federal Reserve to become not just the central bank of the world, but to become the lender and buyer of last resort – its goal since its inception.
To understand central banking is simple: The more debt a central bank issues, the stronger they become. A central bank’s product is debt, period. The more debt they create, the more power they have.
Never in world history has a single institution become more powerful than the WCB/Federal Reserve is today.
The hyper-inflated global debt bubble must be fed… or else.
The debt bubble is the cornerstone of this perverted, debt-based system we have. Enormous effort, in the form of parabolic debt issuance to keep the debt bubble from bursting, must continue. We are existing in a multi-bubble environment, with mass malinvestment taking place, and all of this is 100 percent dependent on the debt bubble.
The Debt Bubble Will Burst
The fact that we are seeing parabolic debt issuance by the WCB is proof positive that the debt bubble is cracking, and it is just a matter of time before it bursts.
Hyperinflation. Why are we not seeing massive inflation yet? The answer is simple: money velocity, which is the rate at which cash moves through an economy. The global economy is dead, no money velocity, so the Fed/WCB can exponentially increase the debt with zero chance of hyperinflation at this time.
To put it another way, all this extra currency is not able to chase the same amount of goods because cash is not moving – a consequence of dead economies.
The artificial suppression of rates has inflated the mother of all bubbles, and, if history has taught us anything, it’s this: without exception, all bubbles burst, despite every effort to prevent them.
We know for certain that the debt bubble is cracking, hence the parabolic debt issuance today. It is not a question of if, but when. The bigger issue is human population, which has followed in tandem with mass debt expansion.
Below is a graph of global debt and human population. The population of the world has risen nearly in tandem with debt.
Mass issuance of debt, cash borrowed from the future, has caused an explosion in human population. In fact, borrowing cash that we do not have from future generations has created an artificial environment that cannot be sustained.
For example, let’s say you wanted to raise livestock and borrowed heavily to create an environment in which to raise them. Initially, the livestock did well, multiplying and growing. Then, for some reason, your funds dried up.
How would you be able to sustain the environment for the growing population of livestock? The answer is simple: You couldn’t, and the livestock would be culled. It is the same here. The debt bubble will burst, and, with it a culling of a large portion of the global population will take place.
The debt bubble transcends a financial problem – it is also now a human one… and the debt bubble is already cracking…
Be careful what you wish for boys (and a couple of gals). From where I sit your alternatives are rubbish.
Statista.com informs us that of the 591 covid19 deaths in Sweden 518 are over the age of 70. In Italy the average age of covid19 deaths is 78 against a life expectancy of 82. This tells me it’s death as usual, similarly in NZ. So why do we label it a pandemic?
Germany’s average age of Corona related deaths is 81 years (https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html). The average life expectancy is just under 83 years. 68% of all Corona deaths in the EU were people with terminal deceases or deceases that would kill them if they weren’t under permanent medial treatment. Just saying!
That’s average life expectancy at birth; life expectancy for (say) a 70 year old is higher. Basically, there are periods in life when one experiences higher statistical probability of dying – early infancy (now much less than it used to be, which is why ‘increases’ in life expectancy look so dramatic) and 20s and 30s (particularly for males, more likely to be involved in dangerous activities). If you survive those, your remaining life expectancy (as is obvious from the arithmetic) is correspondingly higher. If you want to understand more, “The Arithmetic of Life and Death” by George Shaffner is a good place to start.
I never thought I would agree with Sir Bob on any subject, but his article is spot on. NZ is in a unique situation and the lock down has done more harm than good.
The virus will eventually spread anyway and there are more suitable ways of controlling the speed whilst protecting the vulnerable. I like Jacinda as a person and respect the government, but they did get this one wrong. But I wouldn’t like to see National steering us through this either, haha. Where’s the new political alternative that works for local business and focuses on a sustainable future?
Very well thought!
I was in favour at locking down a fortnight earlier in the hope of coming out in less time.
The government have done a lot of things right, and on the run, but when the time comes for sleeves being rolled up, ironically, it is often time for National.
Regarding lockdown: In my opinion (female, for the sake of sexists): we move to level 2, after (or before) the end of Level 4, and the retired (myself included), any appropriate beneficiaries, and as you say, Bob; the sick and elderly— stay in voluntary lockdown.
We need to defeat the human transport system of the virus. If we can keep 25-30% of the population ‘locked up’, it’s surely going to be a major help?
Then businesses and jobs (they do go hand in hand) can get back to work.
We have major industries in desperate need of loosened rules, and small businesses needing to open, to survive. Trying not to be pessimistic, or emotional; but it seems impossible to run the country any other way— we can’t realistically be in complete lock down until the vaccination arrives.
Geez! Get a life!!! You are all sounding like Donald Trump! Hidious & so Negative! Being males I guess it really is difficult to acknowledge the greatness of a female. Leaders & people from around the world are admiring Jacinda because she deserves it as an action packed positive & caring leader of her people. Kia kaha tonu, Jacinda, Labour Party & NZ First!!!
Thank you Dawn Pehi for displaying an example of why people should be required to sit some form of IQ test to vote. If Jacinda is your idea of greatness simply because she is a female you do your cause more injustice than good. Leaders around the world are NOT admiring Jacinda, the media is, why… well today because her mum brought her a cup of tea and some bickies… awwww isn’t she so amazing. I’m glad our economy is being irreparably damaged under her watch so long as she posting those cute pics on Instagram. Go Jacinda, you have no experience or mana, but your a female so that’s enough. nothing else matters. yay
Basically she can do no wrong, shes like the baby in the family. (Adored)
Meanwhile Donald trump gets death threats from deranged people on the left and no – one bats an eyelid .🤣 it’s crazy if people actually started to look at what policies are being signed rather than playing the man. You’d actually make a lot more of an I formed decision . But oh no let’s just keep playing a popularity contest as we watch Aotearoa get flushed down the toilet.
She is basically the puppet and the powers that be are pulling the strings, she is just an actress nothing more, those that are awake can plainly spot a fake, the sheep cannot, thats why they follow ORDERS! Stay home and safe lives is the mantra right!
Placing pressure on us is the only way the government can get you to conform, it is nothing short of trickery & mind control.
Hahaha! Yes, female leaders only get criticised due to sexism, no other reason. You must have been appalled by the treatment of Sarah Palin.
E hoa, please check your bias – you’re speaking in cartoon figures. Could Trump even begin to put together such an intelligent and knowledgeable piece about the economy like this? (Btw this doesn’t mean you or I have to agree with his conclusions). And perhaps you better reread Mr Jones early paragraphs on his admiration for Jacinda. Agree with Jones or not, his assessment of her – and the National/Labour parties – was admirably balanced, and I feel you could learn a lot from that approach. Ideological fanaticism gets us nowhere. Kia tūpato, e hoa kaikā!
Jacinda is a great actress, shes so fake. She was to slow to move our borders should have been closed before we had one case in NZ. Closed to everyone that way NZ would of been in its own bubble and we would not be in the situation we are now. Labour are a joke and her actions have put all NZers at risk. All the good work National did has been undone by this incompetent goverment. The sooner National are back in power the better
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/15-04-2020/siouxsie-wiles-about-those-cries-of-over-reaction-on-nzs-covid-19-response/
Wiles is, in practice, nothing more than a left wing crypto-activist who backs the govt right or wrong, suggest you reacquaint yourself with some of the very bad ‘expert’ advice she came out with in Feb-Mar – that was laughable even then: eg NZ unlikely to get outbreak, no need to close schools (even as it was spreading in two schools), no need to wear masks (she flip flopped on that), no need to worry about casual contact with cases. She went after a senior epidemiologist on twitter using ad hom for disagreeing with her (and she was wrong on the issue) and has resorted to appalling bigotry along the lines of don’t listen to these experts because they are men. She has failed as an ‘expert’ and doesn’t deserve the oxygen of publicity. She should be mostly ignored, there are far smarter, balanced and insightful commentators around.
And whats with that damn Hair. How can anyone take her remotely serious!
Sadly I agree. But dare echo those sentiments to others and the accusation of being disloyal to jacinda and nz are quickly launched.
Great article Sir Robert. Unfortunately for most of us here in NZ we now have a situation that has put us back 20 years as of today. Closing the boarders clearly was the right decision but it came far too late. Testing at the boarders was non existent, and we have been lied to by the current Government. What rights do they have to close businesses down. Small businesses contribute more tax back to the Govt than any of the large Corporate freeloaders. What would happen if everyone decided to go out and ignore the Lock down. Even with the National guard we wouldn’t have enough people to police this nation and you simply can’t throw everyone behind bars.Take a look at what has happened across the ditch and relax the rules with immediate effect. Giving away money seems to me to be a desperate way of saying we don’t have a clue how to remedy this situation. Simply get back to level 2 immediately and deal with the issues at hand with the aged care would be a good starting point. Jacinda may be the face of this country and in most instances she has made a good fist of it up till two months ago but this ultimately will put the final nail in her coffin if this lock-down continues. If we have an election as planned she will bolt in and that is because Simon Bridges is a default leader of the opposition. I National had someone else in charge they would wipe thew floor with this Govt as they understand more about the business sector. Everyone should be equal in this country but it simply isn’t. You only have to view the handouts to a certain other minority that we all have had to listen too for decades. The have had plenty and wasted most of it yet this Labour Govt still continues to waste taxpayers money with no recourse. Bring on level 2, get rid of the opposition leader and lets see where we end up in 2-3 years.
Sir Bob Jones, well written, your commentary is spot on! I have been trying to explain the same to anyone who will listen for weeks now. The response to this virus is completely out of proportion to the risks it posed. Jacinda Ardern has not only king-hit our economy, but then kicked it whilst its down. Whilst those less educated might get warm fuzzy’s from her wage subsidy programme and the likes, reducing the entire workforce to $585 per week (for those that haven’t already been made redundant) inflicts damage that will be irreparable for years to come. This rate equates to just $14.63per hour, this inflicted from a govt. obsessed with the raising the minimum wage at all cost, obsessed with the living wage of some $23+ per hour. For those of us in the know, the vast majority of employees in NZ will not see there wages go back to “normal” (pre-covid) levels, employers will have suffered such losses over this govt.’s ill-proportionate response that the only way to recoup moneys will be to keep wages supressed to the minimum wage. What an achievement for Jacinda, in one irresponsible uneducated decision, she has forced the vast majority of the population onto minimum wage (if they’re lucky enough to still have a job) else on a benefit. Then again perhaps that was their underlying aim all along, to make the masses financial future set by the govt., one way to secure voters.
Anyway, great article Sir Bob, I look forward (sadly) to seeing you proven correct in 6 months time.
I used to catch the Auckland trains to the cbd every day for work. Annoyingly every few minutes you would be bombarded with constant loud broadcasts so you couldn’t relax and read your book or phone. When I asked why this was necessary I was told it was in case there was a blind passenger. I said I had never seen a blind passenger on the train.He said there were occasionally a few. I asked how they had managed before but he could not give an answer. I am sure blind people are hugely resourceful and dont need cotton wool. So that is an example of how society is run these days. Millions of.people have to suffer unnecessarily for the supposed unfounded needs of 1 or 2. This is how the virus is being handled also.
There are so many examples of idiotic changes for a very small minority that affect the majority. I believe we have a system where a vocal minority control the majority. This is not a democracy
It works in both directions
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.z5ry4bucq
Thanks Caleb. An interesting link.
Dawn…..get real. Bob…….you are spot on and totally realistic.
Joesan
thanks sir bob just sound common sense based on years of business experience something the govt sorely lacks
Nice one Bob, again someone speaking from a hard working self made tax paying position and not a life in a government department sheltered from common sense and decision making with person consequences.
Wow. What a breath of fresh air again. Working in construction , we were all wondering back in late Feb why we didn’t just close close the borders.
NZ had all the advantages , self sufficient and isolated. We never needed a lockdown, or at most a 14 to 20 day one. This virus is inflicting a minuscule amount of people, sadly the elderly but they could have been isolated quicker and had testing at the border been implemented immediately as in other countries, then infected migrant healthcare workers
( who we really DO need ) wouldn’t have infected these rest homes.
Unfortunately we will have to see out the whole lock down now, but sadly the majority of us could have worked right through.
We all hope Cindy is reading this but I fear not.
Bob, the other option was to go hard when the first plane from China arrived. Remember that plane where all onboard we’re isolated in Whangaparoa, in caravan’s.
Why did we ease up on the plane loads of virus carrying people landing C19 on our tarmacs / people post this flight?..
Oh that’s right..Self ” bloody” isolation
If Cindy had gone hard and quarantined every person on every inbound flight way back then (When the Chinese flight was quarantined) we would not have had to go to level 4, we would not be wasting billions saving the economy, and we wouldn’t have had needless deaths.
The truth of this is Cindy and Bloomfield have blood on their hands!…
…And coming out now saying ” we went ” hard and fast is just media spin to negate the fact they failed.
Finally, I don’t care what other countries do, and don’t care for our in/actions compared to them. All I want is for firm leadership, a police force that polices the law, and Cindy to stop her speech writers spinning the reality to disguise her parties ineptitude.
Oh… And I want random testing now!… Inorder to understand how many people are not testing (or to scared to test due to the isolation rules), are carrying with no symptoms, and those that are not carrying but have a common cold. How else will we know the true infection rate to exit Level 4
PM has a plan for random testing. Easy to say it should have started ages ago. But, actually, NZ is perfectly suited to full-population testing. A case study in a town in Italy eliminated the virus in just 2 rounds of testing. At Germany’s rate (200k tests/day), we could start with health workers, ill, infirm, elderly, and do everyone in 3 weeks. A UK researcher reckons postal testing could do 10m per day. We could do full-population testing every 7-10 days. It is a better way to eliminate the virus, and we’d have greater certainty to reopen the economy, and borders (inbound need test 5 days prior and we test on arrival too, only quarantine tiny proportion). Kiwis clear, and tourists too. More here https://medium.com/@ronald.pol/open-letters-to-prime-ministers-ardern-and-morrison-from-a-nobody-444d80b71c05 and here https://medium.com/@ronald.pol/dear-jacinda-ardern-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-e8dc2f5450e
Having a plan and actually instigating it are two different things.
Random testing needs to start at least 14 days before we change level to L3. Cindy has missed that boat.
Also, have you noticed, the new case per day rate is lower when the test rate is lower.. .which just show the ineptitude of Cindy and co.
I bet if she tested 12000 tommorow we would have 40-60 new cases.
Very true. Our low testing rate, focused on symptomatic, is not only looking where the virus isn’t (thus obscuring reality, as you say), it’s also obscuring where it was. That is, many people will have had it, if tested weeks ago we’d have found it, but now, over it, it doesn’t show up on these tests, and isn’t recorded as a ‘case’. Germany’s Angela Merkel, on the other hand, doesn’t care that Germany has high ‘cases’. It’s a meaningless number that media focus on as if it has meaning. She seems to care more for science, reality, and better outcomes for Germans than optics. Testing at 200k per day, catching lots of people early on, enabling early observation/treatment, and German deaths are much lower than countries with feeble testing (UK). Trouble is, we knew this long ago (eg see “community testing”, one of the first of this bunch of haiku, link below), but NZ still only tests symptomatic. The science has been ignored so long now it is increasingly becoming a reasonable hypothesis that it may be deliberate obfuscation, which would be sad. Not so much about politicians, they’re always on spin cycle, but the tight huddle of in-group scientists possibly generating the next great example of groupthink to overtake the classic O-ring. I do hope not, but there are now scores of independent scientists screaming into the wind about decision making ignoring multi-disciplinary science potentially enabling far better outcomes, ignored (and MP’s and officials too, I understand, completely muzzled), with “narrative control” crushing any prospect of diversity of thinking enabling better outcomes. It may prove a ‘better’ groupthink example than the O-ring because the reality has been clear for many weeks, and the “don’t launch or the Shuttle will explode” message is well recorded from many more people, and still it looks as if the launch signal will be given. https://medium.com/illumination/covid-19-collected-haiku-dca45ae0cc60
I agree with Sir Bob. I am worried sick about how all of the billions being handed out is going to be repaid. I feel very sorry for the younger folk of today having to pick up this problem. The current government is mostly made up of academics who haven’t a clue as to how to operate in a practical sense.
So if Labour will not be re-elected, who will govern? I have no doubt that National – MP for MP – would be far more competent, but they need a leader with some charisma. Bridges, for all his undoubted ability, lacks the x factor and comes across as a whinger. Interestingly, had Little not stood aside and handed leadership to Ardern, then almost certainly, Bill English would be the PM. More than ever it’s the leader who will decide the next election.
Great post, Sir Bob. I’ve reblogged it at https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2020/04/blunt-good-sense-from-bob-jones/. It’s had good, positive feedback. Thank you.
The reason JA closed our borders was because our health system would not be able to cope should we have had the high numbers of hospital cases and community transmission, that other countries were experiencing. Ir’s that simple. I don’t think that a National Government would have made a different decision. The debacle at airports etc I completely agree should have been handled much better.
In summary the global effects of too much debt are why we are seeing world economies entering recession. People/businesses don’t having savings. Corporates have taken cheap loans and inflated their share prices through share buybacks. Those profits have been sold off by the the CEO’s leaving the debt behind as they sailed off into the sunshine last year when the number of CEO’s stepping down rose to an all time high. They could see what others couldn’t, that the writing was on the wall. Sadly, it’s the coronavirus that will be the fall guy…. the system just fell down.
At last the voice of reason, Sir Bob Jones, absolutely hit the nail on the head and I hope he is right otherwise we are in in the proverbial crap.
I agree entirely with Sir Bob’s observations. I am an 80 year old but I will take my chances. We can’t stop the world. I have kids and grandkids who need to see some result from their efforts. Anyway if this thing is going to get me I don’t want to spend my final few weeks holed up doing nothing. I have interests outside that I need to put effort into and get enjoyment out of. We just need to take care and use our common sense.
I found this recent article from Forbes Magazine about female world leaders responses to the Coronavirus.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/amp/?fbclid=IwAR0x8_Efu55_3krzaImHVGgf-qxK8etMA_4J2R41KiVW9JnN_rFxWiB_CeM&__twitter_impression=true
Thanks Sarah. Interesting read. And that Iceland is getting ahead will its all-population testing, just what NZ could have done, I’ve been banging on about it to Govt brick wall for a long time. Good for them. That will help Iceland’s people immensely, while our strategy of hope that its eliminated will leave massive uncertainty and risk of debilitating pulsed lockdowns. Iceland’s data will help the world. Nobel prize type help. While science-denying and dogmatic nations continue to test only the symptomatic, getting the virus’ GPS system, how it really gets about, through everyone (ages, symptoms, asymptomatic, etc) will be invaluable for Iceland and every nation. And speed up vaccine development.
Problem with that is ..
They are measuring these leaders at the beginning when there is so much more to unfold. … Such morons!
Let’s see where they are post the health response and then post the fiscal response.
Let’s check the suicide rates, the violence stats and all the other issues that are exposed as a result of these leaders poor management of the whole Covid19 issue.
Determining a result at the 1/4 time break is just plain dumb.
New Zealand has been admitted to Intensive Care
having contracted a virus for which there is no known cure:
Doctor: You can be very grateful to St. Jacinda for admitting you as early as she did because we are able to prevent further harm.
NZ: I am grateful because these diseases can be very nasty. I heard that maybe 50% of the population have it already and of those maybe half show symptoms and of those almost all recover having suffered from 3 days on coughing and a fever. I also hear that 10% may need to go to hospital and of that 10% (less than 1% of the total) may die from complications. Anyway I’m happy that you have put me in an induced coma and look forward to being back on my feet in a month.
Doctor: Well thank you, I’ll pass the message on. If she didn’t take such drastic action we could have ended up like the rest of the world and I don’t think we, the medical profession would have coped.
NZ: No – thank you. The sooner we get back to normal the better.
Doctor: Well, the first thing is that we need to get you better. We are a bit in the dark about your continuing treatment post coma as there could be a long term consequences to the drastic intervention that we have taken – no need to worry about that now but St Jacinda and her team have that well in hand.
NZ: What do you mean continuing treatment – I thought that once out of the coma we are in the clear.
Doctor: I don’t think that you fully understand the seriousness of the situation. Firstly, we put you in isolation which meant that you were no longer in contact with the outside world. That was a big help but that meant that a significant part of your system was shut down. Secondly, we had to give you a massive transfusion just to keep you stable. Thirdly, we had to reduce your metabolism to levels that you are showing signs of life but not much more.
NZ: Really? All this just to combat a common cold?
Doctor: I’m going to have to be firm with you on this. This is not just a common cold but a virus that threatens our very existence.
NZ: Steady on. Tell me about your plans for my recovery.
Doctor: Well, you will probably have to stay in isolation for an indeterminate period. Much will depend on what happens in the outside world. I wouldn’t book any overseas trips for the foreseeable future and you are not likely to get any visitors once out of isolation.
NZ: Crikey. That makes up 6% of my income and I employ almost 10% of the workforce. What else?
Doctor: Well we managed to save a few of the big bits but it is likely that a large number of the smaller affected bits will atrophy which is more concerning given they are integral to your whole system.
NZ: What else?
Doctor: Well you are not going to be able to run as fast as you used to. Firstly we are going to get you walking and hopefully you can be up to full speed again in a few years’ time. That’s up to you – it may be sooner or may be longer. It depends on what’s going on in the rest of the world. The fact is you are a lot smaller than you were when you came in here so getting back to full strength is going to take time.
NZ: Can I do anything to get back quicker?
Doctor: Well we might try normal interventions like replacing a few of your worn out parts or giving you better ones but that is expensive and the outcome is not always justifies the cost.
NZ: Better than nothing I suppose.
Doctor: Another option we used in the past had mixed results. We flooded your system with amphetamines and that really got your heart going. We have had a decade of good results but the downside is that you have become addicted and we have nowhere to go with this treatment. You are already maxed out.
NZ: This is not the bounce back I was expecting.
Doctor: Quite. Remember this is early days and as we get more information we can give a better prognosis. But at this stage we are doing our best to ensure that this setback is short-lived.
NZ: I had no idea. What’s this all going to cost?
Doctor: The bad news is that you have no savings left. The good news is that you can borrow to cover the cost at effectively no interest.
NZ: But I still have to pay the loan back.
Doctor: You’ll think of something – increase taxes for example or just kick the can down the road like the rest of the world.
NZ: I like that last idea. Now put me back in that coma.
Sir Bob you referenced Enoch Powell’s assertion that ALL political careers end in failure.That is not true, although I can only think of one where the “politician”achieved there objectives and moved on,you
Fair analysis Robbo. Let’s use some logic in thinking through the actions to be taken.
Hi
Have we got to the point where we write people off just because they are old or frail?
Putting the economy first before the people who live here and pay taxes and rates
Restaurants are on a limited time frame anyway with high rents and a fickle generation who move from one hotspot to the next. Christchurch has shown this as there are more hospitality businesses opening and closing blaming rents and lack of support from the council.
A great comment, I just hope it doesn’t pan out as far as small business and unemployment rates are concerned.
Spot on Bob Jones. As a business man I am seriously concerned that the “assistance” being offered from Government is a chance to get in the back door and create an equity position in pressured business’s eg primary, forestry, construction and any other segment of NZ they want to control. As a recipient of the Wage Subsidy, I did the figures and the only winner here is Government – picking up PAYE on every ones gross income. Not locking our borders down when the risks became apparent was an act of negligence and the “kid glove” handling of lockdown miscreants was a joke. I am well into my 70’s and have been in isolation for nearly 4 weeks – I am happy to do my part for the country but lets not be led by the nose to something (read generations of debt to create a feel good factor) that will only create serious, serious issues for the future
Yes this may be a great b plan.. yes it’s mainly old people dropping due to the burden on their existing medical conditions.. But if you don’t mind I’d like to die in 5 years.. and not tomorrow..
Inflation, our course money printing will lead inflation, if only to counter deflation, especially in property prices. If property prices fall even slightly in Auckland or Wellington this government is toast. Property prices are ultimately more important than old codgers dying?
Going back to the begining: The first response from little miss goodie two shoes is we don’t want anybody to catch it (C19) and even more we don’t want anyone to die! And being the most compationate person we have ever had it that position others jump on the band wagon and the media jump on board and dramatise the whole situation and instill fear into many people and then we have the panic buying of toilet paper situation! Job was to minimise the situation but still keep the country in a state of functionality. The essense is to let C19 run its course. Yes people will die; but it will minimise the overall effect on the gross majority and just a dip in the economy not a crash!!
Bob Jones you got my vote on this one
To address many of the comments here and as an addendum to my own:
Society A beats the virus through mass testing, isolation, cultural modification, and borders. Society B takes its losses but develops herd immunity.
B is more robust to future outbreaks of the same or similar viruses.
A is more robust to completely novel pathogens and to bioweapons.
Sweden looks to be the control example of Society B and it shall be interesting to see the result. But long-term the greater risk by far is the scenario Society A is addressing. SARS-COV 2 is a novel pathogen, giving us a valuable close-call to get our house in order in preparation for the next one. A pandemic will happen again, it’s just a question of when.
The key factors many are overlooking are uncertainty, and time. Under uncertainty it always pay to be overcautious, especially with systemic exponential things like viruses. Something like a fast growing virus can quickly balloon in to an extreme tail event so what seems like overreaction initially can quickly prove to be insufficient.
Time is important for many reasons. Some object to the idea of lockdowns to buy time because surely a virus will spread anyway when the lockdown ceases, so everyone will end up sick anyway, just delayed?
This misses the crucial benefits. One – it allows us to gather more information, removing uncertainty about symptoms, appropriate behaviours, measures, and treatments. Two – Even without a vaccine it buys time for more gradual natural herd immunity to build up, as some lower (different) amount of people will get sick at once, so it both delays and reduces victims. Three – viruses generally mutate to be less deadly over time. It behooves a virus to use its host to spread without debilitating that host too much, which death obviously does.
Moving out of lockdown, some of the suggestions made about keeping the vulnerable isolated are likely sound as an intermediate stage once sufficient testing (particularly serology testing to see who is immune) is being done. Full population mask wearing is a further measures that makes this option more possible. I am very wary of senicide however as it is not so easy to disentangle the elderly from the young. There are many things that could be said, but what sort of society are we if we don’t value the lives of elderly citizens? Government can’t afford not act in principle for this reason (even if too slowly and ridiculously). If things get bad enough people would ultimately take measures into their own hands anyway, and that is especially true for the Society B scenario and its health/economic picture.
Lets face it. More people will die on our roads this year, more than this virus will take away. Every year when the winter chills hit we lose a lot of our aged population simply because they have very low immunity to the common colds etc. We will lose more to suicide if the lock-down is maintained. Now we hear that JA and her peers are taking a 20% pay cut for six months. Simply a load of shyte, what about all of the people that are about to lose their jobs. Another pathetic response from this Govt. Lock up all of your possessions as the looters are not far away from your back-doors. Check your insurance policies and update them otherwise it will be a double whammy.
Quite simply, more people than usual would die from automobile crashes during a pandemic if our health system became so overwhelmed by COVID 19 cases that it could not safely care for accident victims. This was the right course to take to prevent deaths not just from COVID but other normally treatable health conditions.
A lot of common sense in here Sir Bob. Here’s another observation – which is factual and has been in front of us for quite some time. In the time it has taken Covid 19 to kill 120,000 people – the human population has had a net growth of ( at this very second) 23,535,930. And yes the air has cleared all over the world – particularly in China – where they closed factories that made stuff we probably really didn’t need to buy. Whilst in Lock Down I have been passing time cellaring out cupboard of stuff I really never used and probably didn’t really need. In the last 4 weeks – all I have spent money on was food – and I haven’t really felt deprived in the least. And here’s the thing we can think about – when those factories do fire up again in China – and start to resolute the air they breath – what exactly will they be making. Most lily stuff we don’t really need. And as I write this that net human population has now gone to 23,536,593. Now that sure looks like a pandemic me. .
Some solid observations here Sir Bob. Here’s another fact to consider that has been in front of us for some time. In the time it has taken Covid 19 to kill 120,000 people, the net human population in the world has risen by 23,537,560. And yes, as you quite rightly observe, the skies have cleared as well. The one in China has done so quite spectacularly with the closing down of all of those factories. And what did those factories make? Well stuff we probably really didn’t need, wrapt in plastic we have used to build islands the size of Mexico in our oceans. I thought of this as I passed my time in Lock Down clearing out cupboards of stuff I really didn’t need. Over the past couple of weeks the only thing I have actually gone out and bought was food – and I have to say I don’t feel deprived at all. And while I have been writing this the net human population has risen to 25,538,390. Now that looks like a real pandemic to me.
In line with Sir Bob’s satirical mandate, we have a lesson from The New Yorker about the failure in pandemic preparedness plans:
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/study-no-one-could-have-seen-pandemic-coming-except-people-capable-of-reading
They under reacted.
They went hard on the China flight to NZ. REMEMBER THAT FLIGHT ?… Yip the flight/passengers that we isolated in caravans when we had less than 1 death.
Why did Bloomfield and Cindy not carry on with that stance?
Why did Cindy go soft and allow every other incoming flight/passenger into NZ with a half arsed temp test, a pamphlet, and a welcome.
This stupidity allowed the virus in to NZ and forced us to go level 4.
That was the mistake right there!!!
… And don’t tell me we we’re not resourced for these incoming people because we were!!!
We could have set you a military hospital on all the airport spare land / carparks and we could have employed
All the spare builders to build a isolation ward inside any of the spare warehouses and airfreight depots at the airport…
Ardern and Bloomfield we’re caught in the headlight s, they were reactive rather than proactive and…. Ardern and her inexperienced, idealistic, overbearing ways missed an opportunity to keep the virus out, Save the economy, ad keep NZ safe.
I hold her and Bloomfield 100% accountable for the the poor decisions and subsequent deaths and the pending multi billion dollar debt.
She will point the finger at others with spin and a smile, but she is ultimately responsible.
Bob Jones could replace the whole Government and do a better job.
Thanks Bob. For me your observation that you can now see for miles and miles, best in over 51 years and all that. Is confirmation that we are seeing a reduction in global dimming, if it is noticeable in Wellington NZ, then it will be happening globally.
Seeing stars over Beijing or Wuhan is a nice thought, but removal of the pollution will see a massive increase in the global average temperature = more ice melt, more CH4, more heating … repeat.
Bob Jones has completely missed the point. Yes we’re doing the same harsh lockdown as countries like England and Italy which don’t have our natural advantages in suppressing the virus . But we are doing the same thing for a different reason. They are trying to mitigate it; we are trying to stamp it out.
This has probably all been covered and although you make some good points they are in hindsight. The time for you to bellow from the top of Mt Vic was early Feb if you were that clairvoyant and concerned. We have what we have and we will all have to make the most of what is to come.
Many people tried to make many of these points much earlier, myself included. Many have given up, like a top kiwi scientist now in the US, kicked to the curb for speaking truth to power even while saying he reckoned Jacinda was tremendous. I’ve also given up. Many are still trying. Like the group of scientists with plan-b. All are falling on deaf ears. The PM is free to choose anyone she wants in her science bubble. It’s good politics to control the narrative. But it’s not how science works, nor crisis management, because it locks out other ways outside the groupthink that might not blow up the space shuttle. Sadly, some of those scientists have contracted the narrative, saying things ‘on message’ but demonstrably wrong in science and logic.
I’m really sorry to say so, but Bob’s ramblings contain flaws in logic, significant errors in fact too numerous to list or refute. NZ’s doing a great job. Keep doign what you’re doing. Good luck; I miss you.
Relieved to see there is still some sanity left in NZ. As an owner of a SME, the blatant disregard and ignorance of business needs is frustrating at best. Would you employ someone with no business management experience to run a business? Probably not. Yet the biggest “business” in need of strong leadership and proven business turnaround experience at this point is our economy led by a government with little practical business acumen: And to refuse the help of experience outside of the Labour Party is ignorant and arrogant and ego driven. Well meaning and kind doesn’t cut it now. .
Relieved to see there is still some sanity left in NZ. As an owner of a SME, the blatant disregard and ignorance of business needs is frustrating at best. Would you employ someone with no business management experience to run a business? Probably not. Yet the biggest “business” in need of strong leadership and proven business turnaround experience at this point is our economy led by a government with little practical business acumen: And to refuse the help of experience outside of the Labour Party is ignorant and arrogant and ego driven. Well meaning and kind doesn’t cut it now. .
It’s easy to be wise after the event. It’s also easy to poke holes in the restrictions. But the government has acted effectively. It formulated a go hard and go early plan. It was able to communicate the plan clearly because the plan was simple and with few exceptions. That meant most people could comply. The plan seems to have worked. Our economy has taken a massive hit and will take years to improve but I think most people appreciate that the government has not taken risks with our health and the capacity of our health system.
The fact that the government’s plan has contained the effect of the virus in NZ does not mean that Covid 19 is not a pandemic. Even though NZ has had few cases, it is prevalent over the world.
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