The age-old trouble with the left is their sense of righteous leading to their belief that the wider world largely subscribes to their views. This is grand scale naivety, probably the left’s most conspicuous feature. We saw it illustrated with Trump’s recent typically crass twitter, “When the looting starts, the shooting starts,” this bringing the predictable outcry from the predictable sources.
But the cold hard fact is that Trump would have struck a chord with the majority of voters, even if they don’t say so. Mass protests they can live with. Burning of buildings and looting of stores they rightly see as criminality, as in fact it was, by opportunist criminal gangs.
Meanwhile the corpse-like Biden has enjoyed an excellent start to his campaign by being kept out of sight and sound in lockdown. Against Trump he’s completely out of his depth.
A prominent American who shall remain unnamed and who knows him well, told me recently he’s a genuinely charming man, but, he said, he’s plainly showing early signs of dementia. What a choice for voters? How can the system flush up two such extraordinarily unsuitable candidates?
Trump can genuinely blame the virus for the economic mess. His modus operandi, like all tyrants, is to claim there’s enemies of society he alone can deal to. Last time it was “the swamp,” namely the financial world, plus illegal immigration. This time he’s chosen China. It’s a dangerous game for the world, but will probably work. He will blow Biden away in debates.
He did nothing about “the swamp” as he was out of his depth. His anger lay in the fact he was never part of that world, they rightly treating him as an ignoramus wide boy and snobbishly shunning him.
So too his alienation with America’s western European allies. His discomfort in their presence was always glaringly obvious as he sensed their snobbish contempt and derision of his ignorance. He was a fish out of water with the intellectually sophisticated likes of Macron, Merkle and company.
All in all, a horrifying option for Americans. If I was a voter I’d opt for Biden. Far better to have a figurehead President who allows other competents to mind the shop, than a mad, hugely flawed, ignorant oaf.
We live in such unprecedented crazy times, sensible future predictions are near impossible. Everywhere there’s public rioting and economic devastation. Nevertheless, I’m going to make a prediction. Assume the Presidential election is a close-run thing but Biden scrapes home. In such circumstances I’d wager Trump cries corruption and refuses to leave, therein causing a massive Constitutional crisis. By all accounts he listens to no-one other than his daughter and her husband, although one suspects they’re more sycophantic confidantes than advisors. So what happens?
Let’s face it, in a close-run election and what we know of Trump, that’s a highly probable scenario. America should be preparing for it now although constitutionally I don’t know how.
And to further stir the pot, imagine while that’s going on Biden drops dead, a not entirely improbable situation. The likely outcome; a military intervention pending handing over to Biden’s running mate who will be the first woman President. And should that be Amy then my crowing would be fairly noisy as I picked her last year as the stand-out Democrat candidate.
Don’t dismiss all of this as fantasy. In today’s madcap world anything is possible and never more so than with Trump.
POSTSCRIPT
I drafted this piece last Sunday. On Tuesday in the office I read a feature article from America in the Saturday New Zealand Herald awaiting me. Lo and behold it raised the same contingency, quoting diverse commentators of repute, all concerned that Trump, if beaten, would cry corruption and refuse to go.
Plainly it’s a realistic contingency given his known behaviour. As I’ve repeatedly said, we’re living in unprecedented crazy times.
25 Comments
Why are people so scared of the riots and the looting in America?
The flu kills a lot more people than riots every year and no one makes a big deal about that.
Sarcasm aside, such I agree things as described are certainly possible. For better or worse, I hadn’t given the possibility of Trump losing too much consideration, given how things were shaping up, but that is one way it could go down. A lapse of assessment on my part I suppose.
While pertinent, most of these other points are old hat by now from a variety of sources including myself.
I doubt Klobuchar will get the VP pick, but I agree one never knows, especially now.
Even if a pipe dream, one can hope for eventualities such as their managing to break out of the two party system.
Such things are impossible until they aren’t.
At this rate we might even get secessions from the union.
My distaste of identity politics and social justice nonsense is greater than my concerns about Trump. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
For some reason left leaning opinions appear to find, demonstration, bullying, and disobedience acceptable if in support of their stance. As witnessed here in NZ’s Black lives matter movement.
I agree, Creepy Joe at 78 appears to be frail and weak. Really, the best they could come up with in the last four years is Hillary, Bernie, and now Joe? Defacto President will be the VP. God forgive, if Joe’s female pick looks to Taxcinda, as her role model.
Spot on Bob – I had some similar thoughts when I posted this back in Nov 2018:-
https://www.quora.com/Is-Donald-Trump-showing-the-signs-of-a-despot-in-the-making/answer/Martin-Blyth-1
Even back then Trump was exhibiting at least the beginnings of a number of behaviours that all despots seem to have in common (see at above link) e.g. threaten opposition (‘lock her up’), ridiculing opponents, invalidating the press (anything in disagreement with Trump’s views appears to be branded as fake news), attempting to invalidate the judiciary (‘all Obama judges’, ‘Mexican judge not fit to adjudicate on Trump case’) etc etc . If you go through the list at the above link there do not appear to be many of the behaviours of a despot that Trump is not at least attempting. Hopefully he is not heading for the ultimate power grab but if so he may have 4 more years to do so and that raises the question of does the US have sufficient processes in place to prevent Trump’s making a grab for even longer term power? (And for those who say ‘but he is in his 70’s’ remember Mugabe lasted into his 90’s!!). Cheers
All possible. Equally likely: Trump wins the presidency (which I think he will do pretty comfortably) but faces a Senate and Congress stacked against him, who repeal his moves and then vote to have him removed (choose a reason) At this point he refuses to leave, sparking said crisis…
Won’t be Amy unfortunately, Minnesota now a disqualification. Kamala Harris won’t either (former hard-nosed prosecutor). It’ll be a black woman, possibly the Mayor of Atlanta who has the unfortunate name of bottoms.
Trump will win easily. Even a majority of Democrats support him using the military to quell the rioting.
Trump will win easily. Even a majority of Democrats support using the military to quell the rioters. This will be like Nixon in 1972. The Silent Majority.
Bill Marr has been touting this very scenario in detail for 18 months. Writing this blog last week only makes your observations 17 months and three weeks late.
A small correction. From my following the Trump Theatre for the last 4 years.
The Swamp IS NOT the finacial Market
Rather the Entrenched Beuracracy!!!!
Those Thousands of decision making Government Servants and their support for like minded Private Organisations/Polticians. eg The Clinton Regime. as wellas various Gummint Agencies including IRS.
You’re completely wrong on this one, Bob. You forget that Trump, if beaten in November, is free to run again in 2024.
And after 4 years of a Biden-led Democratic administration, America will be crying out for a Republican return. Biden’s Green New Deal and total supplication to China will cripple the American economy 10 times faster than C19.
As for failing to reduce the swamp, Trump unlike all his predecessors has reduced regulation in America. Our limp politicians don’t even attempt to take on the stupid Resource Management Act, which should be the scourge of all new home buyers in New Zealand.
Don’t count Trump out just yet. Before C19 and the riots, Trump was heading for a landslide victory. He is a natural force on the hustings, whereas his opponent, Biden struggles to even remember his own name.
And as for Merkle and Macron, since when has being ‘middle of the road, do nothings’ qualify one to be “intellectually sophisticated”?
And let Democrat competents run the country? That is the definition of an oxymoron. Open borders? Full term abortion, anyone?
It is time for the Saturday sermon of CAKE FACE.
Since the 1970s, we have almost exclusively had centre-right governments elected globally.
In the US, Clinton and Obama were almost the same as the Republican Presidents. Only Bernie was different, and thankfully sense prevailed, and eventually he lost badly.
In the UK, Blair and Brown were almost identical to Cameron, May and Johnson. Mr Corbyn stood on a socialist platform, and got annihilated.
In NZ, Clark and Key were almost identical on actual policy, if not tone. Ms Ardern was on track to be another centrist government, leaving me contented that socialism was dead.
As a consequence, I have been apolitical for 30 years. Everywhere, all the time, in democracies we get centrist governments elected – this was my belief.
Covid has changed it all. The dead hand of socialism is back everywhere – and nowhere is it back with more ardour than in NZ.
The UK’s people paid a massive price in the late 1980s and early 1990s for the socialism of the 1970s. Thatcherism sorted out the mess, but at huge cost. Similarly, NZ’s people paid a massive price in the late 1980s and early 1990s for the socialism of the 1970s. Rogernomics sorted out the mess, but again at a huge human cost.
Thirty years of careful economic management in NZ, by governments of different parties, could well be squandered in the next three short years. The retribution afterwards will be terrible.
Almost inevitably, a version of Rogernomics will need to be implemented precipitously here around 2025 or so. The human cost will be terrible, but this is the price of socialism. It doesn’t deliver the goods.
Lockdown made me appreciate the incredible beauty of capitalism. For 30 years, I have travelled the world. Globalism saw me exposed to people and cultures all over the planet, and gave me a living standard that virtually no-one in a socialist State could ever experience.
The beauty of globalisation, capitalism and freedom are really only appreciated when they are lost. Lockdown and the imposition of the Socialist State of NZ will impact NZ negatively for decades if not generations. Socialism is an ugly philosophy, having the deadly sin envy at its heart.
The socialists maintain that their Fortress Isolationist policies are superior to globalisation, but I’m convinced that they are wrong, whether you be rich or poor. Indeed, globalisation over the past forty years has lifted the world’s poor up like no other force in human history – billions of people were raised out of poverty. They will now promptly be deposited back on the scrap heap.
Of course, paradoxically it’s easier to make money for a select few in socialism, than it is in capitalism. Competition is tough in a market economy – you have to work harder or smarter than your motivated competitors to do well. In a socialist economy, making money comes down to relationships – it is a system which is essentially corrupt. Who gets given the quota, import license, or government contract, decides who is financially successful. Economists call this rent seeking, which explains how to make money in a socialist State (see the oligarchs in Russia as an example).
I don’t have much hope that this can be avoided. Mistakes need to be repeated. Unfortunately, socialism will never die. Advocates will always say “This time, it will be different.” It won’t, but alas, we need to do the dance anyway.
God help us.
Labour are buying this year’s election, that’s for sure. When National get back in 2023 (Jacinda by then sequestered to the UN to spread her three hitherto unknown miracles of empathy, kindness and non-stop spending throughout the world) they will turn off the money tap and be forever known as the “big meanie government”.
“Out, out, brief candle! Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and is heard no more. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” [Shakespeare]
It is fashionable to derive great schadenfreude from the travails of Trump. For sure, he’s a silly sausage, but ultimately, so what?
The great threat to the USA from the Presidential election has already been avoided – the election of Bernie Sanders.
The US economy will bounce back, even if they re-elect a melon.
The US has the best companies in the world – such as the FAANGS. The US has the strongest institutions. The US has a commitment in general to a market-based system.
I would be more concerned about Europe, having lived half my life there. Lead by Germany, the politicians have been sensible and stable for decades. However, countries such as Italy could collapse, if Germany doesn’t bail them out. A lurch to the left could see economic carnage in the South and East.
I’m most concerned about here, because NZ has a small open economy. No-one will bail us out. Mistakes we make, we will need to fix, in the years and decades to come.
Perhaps the focus on Mr Trump is therapeutic, because it allows everyone else to live in denial at their own country’s failings?
Here’s a quote below from the Biblical book of Daniel. Context is Babylonian King is having a dream interpreted for him at his request by Daniel, an exile who had found favour with the king due to his integrity, wisdom and apparent abilities to interpret strange dreams.
Dan 4:17 This announcement is by the decree of the sentinels; this decision is by the pronouncement of the holy ones, so that those who are alive may understand that the Most High has authority over human kingdoms, and he bestows them on whomever he wishes. He establishes over them even the lowliest of human beings.
So, according to the Bible, Rulers, Kings, Presidents, PM’s are all ultimately put in place by the most high God for a specific purpose. That would range from despots to those who govern wisely and compassionately. I guess the question is why so? Nations don’t face a judgment at the end of time as individuals do so a nation could be judged in the here and now by the type of leader (party, political direction) it has in place which directly affects how easy or hard life is for its citizens. Another reason is to drive the prophetic time-line forward through specific events.
In the case of America even though it’s European history is deeply Christian and protestant (Bible based), corporately speaking this has largely been window dressing as it has a history bathed in blood, surely not pleasing to the most high. America seems to be in a constant state of turmoil one way or another, whereas God’s kingdom is characterised by peace and no turmoil quite the contrast. Many powerful evangelical leaders in the US are pro Trump and believe he is the man they need (for now) to push their agenda forward which for them is really a theocracy or ruler ship by their Biblical interpretation. This is what they want, they just need political support to get there. Trump has been their friend. I can’t see democrat politics floating the evangelical boat. It is too liberal for them to stomach. This is a central issue in American politics right now because America has a significant role to play in end time Bible prophecy in my opinion and many do not see this.
The death of George Felt occurred in a Democrat State with a Democrat Governor and in a Democrat city with a Democrat Mayor and yet only a sole Republican in D.C. is to blame?
Pre C19, Trump had achieved record Black employment. Also, many American States have a mandatory 10-year prison sentence for minor drug offences. Trump had canned this law which will lead in the future to a large reduction in Black incarceration.
Yesterday, to everybody’s surprise, a huge 2.5 million increase in America of new jobs was announced. The power of tax cuts and regulation cuts are good for growing an economy (Jacinda, please note). The Trump-hating, swamp-loving Washington Post were forced to pull their planned headline of ‘massive crash in employment’ at the last minute.
Trump is brilliant on the hustings. Biden will be hidden away by the Democrats as much as is possible because they know he is utterly useless. Maybe Trump ain’t finished yet !!!
Speculation over Trump not accepting the election results are just that; speculation.
These extraordinary revelations regarding the Obama/Biden ordered investigations and attempts to subvert the democratic process and it’s result show the depths of corruption within the Democrats. Surprisingly (or not) haven’t seen a thing about it in the MSM.
https://youtu.be/kD0rgygc-w8
https://youtu.be/YeBcfNaXl4w
It is time for the Sunday sermon of CAKE FACE.
Immanuel Kant believed that we could only imagine something that we have experienced. For example, if we try to imagine a monster, all we can imagine is a composite of what we have previously seen or experienced. The monster in our minds may have giant sharks’ teeth, and spiders’ legs, with a crocodile’s skin, all scaled up. We cannot imagine something completely un-experienced and new. Human imagination is bounded to experience, where experience is defined broadly to seeing something in any way (on television, for example).
The standard view doing the rounds at the moment is that these are somehow “unprecedented times”. The reasons given for this supposed strangeness is that there is a nasty flu doing the rounds, and there were some race riots in the USA. Many also argue that there is a bad President at the moment. None of these news items strike me as unprecedented at all. In fact, I would go so far as to say its almost business as usual, except for one salient point.
The biggest news item in my lifetime, without question, was the collapse of communism in 1989. One third of the world’s population lived under communist tyranny, and this combusted almost overnight, quite unexpectantly, without hardly any bloodshed.
At the time, I thought communism and socialism would never come back. The horrors of Chairman Mao, Stalin or Pol Pot could never be repeated. The left had been conclusively discredited. There could be no return. Forty years of huge global growth only reinforced this view. It seemed like an empirical fact that extreme leftists never got elected. Leftists converted to centralists to survive and be electorally relevant.
A light has switched overnight with this nasty flu, and the extreme leftists are back, but with a marketing switch which is generating amazing results. Somehow, in NZ, the extreme leftists have stumbled on the fact that you can seize property and human rights with impunity, as long as you gurn away about kindness, while you’re doing it.
I’m shocked at the success of their strategy, but then again, my experiences are different from most people in NZ. I lived in Europe half my life. I have very close friends from the former Eastern Bloc.
It’s interesting to talk to my friends about living under communism. They were small children at the time, so adapting to capitalism was easy for them. They say that their parents and grandparents have been unable to adapt to the change. Of course, the older members of society had problems adapting to a globalised world in terms of language (they only spoke only their local language dialect, and some bad Russian). Pretty much all educated Eastern Europeans under thirty now speak English. Yet it wasn’t the language barrier that caused them to fail to adapt. The mindset of living under communism was so different, adapting to capitalism was simply bewildering.
My friend did comment that the old people in the Eastern Bloc surpassed themselves in lockdown – you got a lot of practice in hiding under your bed during communism.
Personally, I don’t find the difficulties the older generations had in terms of adapting to democratic capitalism surprising. In NZ, after only three years of mild socialism (expect this to get ramped up after the election), a good proportion of the population’s brains are already mush. The entitlement of Lefties is quite amazing. Hardly any intend going back to the office, or working a forty-hour week – they have lost all self-esteem, ability to work, and even the ability to function outside in the real world. The number of basket case people in NZ is rising astronomically, although of course these people are being enabled by the government.
The problem in NZ is that only people my age and older remember Muldoonism. Younger people have no experience of it. A government which promises free everything must be very appealing.
In summary, something precedented albeit unusual is happening here – NZ is about to become a socialist State again. The flu, the race riots, even the Presidential election – are all just noise, signifying nothing (at least to little NZ).
It could take generations to recover from this bout of socialism, like it did for the Eastern Bloc…
Thank you for your insightful comments Cake Face. The divisive race issue is being exploited here as well so perhaps we should be paying attention.
The unprincipled cowardice toward with the illegal road blocks, preferential race based surgery and a wall of money thrown at Maori could be explained/excused as an election bribe but I believe this will continue – Labour have neither the wit nor wisdom to see the dangers of where this is headed. In a race war, ultimately, you don’t get to chose which side to take.
Here is a wee discussion between evolutionary biologists, husband and wife, Heather Heying and Bret Weinstein you might find interesting. What the Anarchists Want:
https://youtu.be/3FhEvyccrIY
I have to completely disagree with a number of points raised in this article. Theorizing what Trump may or may not do should he lose a close election is garbage. You have no idea what he will do. The left and the entire media complex lost their minds in 2016 when Trump answered a question about accepting the result of the election if he lost. He said he’d wait to see if they were fair. The left then lost and none of them accepted the result. There were mass protests claiming “not my president”. The DNC tried to paint Trump as a Russian asset, and that Putin put him in power. The still don’t accept they lost.
As for “the swap”, it’s not the financial world, or illegal immigration. The Swamp refers to corrupt DC positions and politically motivated employees in various arms of the state, like the FBI, DOJ, and the State Department. I wouldn’t be so bold as to say he’s failed to attack them. There is currently a criminal investigation by Durham that is likely going to result in some real action. Trump couldn’t do anything about “the swamp” for the first couple of years of his presidency as he was under investigation by Muller etc. Which says a lot about exactly what Mullers task was, doesn’t it. Trump’s only been on the front foot in fighting the swap for the past 18 months or so.
Freudian slip of the year.
On Q & A with Jack Tame.
Geoff Bascand of the Reserve Bank states:
… we’ve seen … economies open up and not be as BAD AS WE WANTED.
In 2016 we were warned if Trump lost there would be riots.
Trump won and Democrats rioted
In 2016 we were warned if Trump lost he wouldn’t accept the result
Trump won and Hillary Clinton refused to accept the result blaming Russian collusion, prompting a 2 1/2 year witchhunt which turned up nothing.
I predict that Trump, if he loses might whinge and whine on twitter but he will accept the result. The Democrats, if Trump wins will again riot.
Trump was actually surprised that he won in 2016, and on the night of victory, he gave quite a humble speech. In contrast, Hillary, bitter and twisted, never even fronted up to thank her supporters. To this day she still doesn’t accept the result.
If Trump loses this year, he like the rest of us, will simply sit back and watch with amusement as America sinks into the economic abyss.
Then he’ll begin his campaign for 2024.
Suck on that, Democrats.