To date, thanks to the government and media’s disproportionate obsession with the corona virus, the normal election fervour has been missing in action. In these circumstances the historically unprecedented lop-sided polling becomes explicable.
But with less than a month to go, I don’t expect the current polling to remain, rather the National/ACT – Labour/Greens gap will narrow.
At this juncture here’s my polling day predictions.
Labour/Greens – 48%
National/ACT – 43%
Of the minor parties only NZ First, despite its current low polling, is likely to crack 5%.
I say that as polling NZ First, as Winston correctly points out, has always been understated.
NZ First voters are oddballs and can easily escape the pollsters supposed cross-sector sampling.
Winston historically drew huge support from old folk because of his initiatives targeting them. But that’s in the past. Many will have died since his free public transport type innovations were introduced and the newly eligible will not connect this entitlement to NZ First.
Not so with the sizeable racing industry though who will vote NZ First.
So it’s possible once again Winston will end up calling the shots. If so, it will be his last hurrah.
Knowing his love of doing the unexpected and notwithstanding pre-election utterances by National, I could easily imagine, if given Foreign Affairs, Winston going with the Nats, as like him, they’re essentially a stolid conversative party.
Another contingency that could throw thing’s amok is the Greens not cracking 5%. They’re intellectual frauds and the sooner they’re gone and a true Green Party arises in their place, the better.
Such a party would certainly command my whole-hearted support as the biggest issue facing the world is not the virus but global warming.
But should the Greens prove there is a God after all and the bugger is on the job and makes sure they miss out, then the next Government is anyone’s guess.
The immediate concern will be dealing with the economic mess that confronts the world post-lockdowns. Who will best deal with that out of Labour and National?
Labour will be boldest as boldness is not historically a National Party characteristic and it’s boldness which will be needed.
So all in all, probably a Labour government but in these uncertain times we should take nothing for granted.