To date, thanks to the government and media’s disproportionate obsession with the corona virus, the normal election fervour has been missing in action. In these circumstances the historically unprecedented lop-sided polling becomes explicable.
But with less than a month to go, I don’t expect the current polling to remain, rather the National/ACT – Labour/Greens gap will narrow.
At this juncture here’s my polling day predictions.
Labour/Greens – 48%
National/ACT – 43%
Of the minor parties only NZ First, despite its current low polling, is likely to crack 5%.
I say that as polling NZ First, as Winston correctly points out, has always been understated.
NZ First voters are oddballs and can easily escape the pollsters supposed cross-sector sampling.
Winston historically drew huge support from old folk because of his initiatives targeting them. But that’s in the past. Many will have died since his free public transport type innovations were introduced and the newly eligible will not connect this entitlement to NZ First.
Not so with the sizeable racing industry though who will vote NZ First.
So it’s possible once again Winston will end up calling the shots. If so, it will be his last hurrah.
Knowing his love of doing the unexpected and notwithstanding pre-election utterances by National, I could easily imagine, if given Foreign Affairs, Winston going with the Nats, as like him, they’re essentially a stolid conversative party.
Another contingency that could throw thing’s amok is the Greens not cracking 5%. They’re intellectual frauds and the sooner they’re gone and a true Green Party arises in their place, the better.
Such a party would certainly command my whole-hearted support as the biggest issue facing the world is not the virus but global warming.
But should the Greens prove there is a God after all and the bugger is on the job and makes sure they miss out, then the next Government is anyone’s guess.
The immediate concern will be dealing with the economic mess that confronts the world post-lockdowns. Who will best deal with that out of Labour and National?
Labour will be boldest as boldness is not historically a National Party characteristic and it’s boldness which will be needed.
So all in all, probably a Labour government but in these uncertain times we should take nothing for granted.
25 Comments
Sorry Sir Bob, but climate change is not even in the top 20 of the global problems list! You should respectfully read more on the climate realists side of the debate, and you will appreciate how the political left have hijacked the issue for pure political gain.
Pete, do you really think Sir Bob hasn’t read up adequately on the matter?
You are kidding yourself to think he needs any enlightenment, or reading tips from you.
Bob, unfortunately I believe you may be right.
If so we can look forward to decades of Venezuela type political and economic carnage.
I pray to Buddha and all the other gods that we finally see the demise of both the Greens and NZ First.
Our only salvation is a National / ACT coalition which I know is a hard ask over the next three weeks.
This election will be make or break for both leadership candidates. Whether the cult of personality that is support for St. Taxcinda will take a hit given the expected high taxes if Labour gets back in or if the more matronly alternative of Thatcher meets Nurse Ratched that is Judith will galvanise National voters, many of whom went to private schools and might prefer a more disciplinarian approach than the kindness and inclusion being spruiked by Labour. I think the current Winston First polling is about right given his cynical betrayal of NZ voters at the last election. The Greens are an irrelevant luxury in the current Chinese pandemic recession and will not win Auckland Central or the required 5% party vote.
If Winston First were to come out and state they would not go with Labour in the next term, leaving voters wondering if they would go with National or take the crossbenches, the result would be quite unpredictable. But we could be certain it would change the voting numbers for Labour, National and Winston First, and quite possibly Act and The Kermits as well.
Biggest issue facing the world is global warming…maybe so but it has little to do with man & even less chance we can do anything about it.
It’s nature at work.
It is too late to do anything about global warming, in 2006 Al Gore said we only have 10 years to do anything. He got a Nobel Peace price for it, so he must be right.
Sorry folks its too late
Labour bold. Have you looked at their line up. Their is no Roger Douglas or even close to it. Robertson whose biggest financial job before becoming finance minister was organizing the Melbourne cup sweep. The rest what Ardern, Davis, Twyford, Woods, Sepuloni, Hipkins etc. Do you really think they are capable of bold policy? I think not. Probably need to look to ACT. Seymour is one who makes consistent sense.
Frederick.
They are a team of no bodies and that includes their leader. Robertson is their shining light.
Nationals loss of Steven Joyce was more than tragic.
If NZF and the luny Greens do disappear it is proof dark clouds can have a silver lining.
There are 2 parties that have stayed relatively true to their defining principles. No.1 is Act. A true party and their values have cost them support and No.2 is Labour who have always believed the worker is more important than the businesses that employ them. They think Govt servants know everything and that its good to give people all the fish they want rather than insisting they fish for their own.
National and NZF have been and remain a disgrace. One having lost its backbone (Keys champagne socialism cemented this) and Peter’s is a bare faced liar hell bent on a Govt Chq for the rest of his miserable life. He and Helen have served as perfect dart boards in the basement where they belong. Cindy has a special place in the toilet.
Good thoughts Bob, it will be interesting indeed. The Nats need to display courage and state simply there will be no more lockdowns – that would get lots of undecided votes.
The Labour coalition will roll in easily otherwise, there are not enough true differences between L and N anymore. Act have courage, Winston is cunning, the Greens are as nutty as an organic fruit cake. When they are blown off the NZ political map may a true green arise.
One possible advantage to Labour of having the ‘Charlatan Greens’ in parliament is that they are outside of Labour and not infecting it from with inside Labour’s Policy Council. An analogy may be the US Democrats. The Democrats in the USA have the ‘Four Horsewomen of the SocialistGreen Deal Apocolypse’ driving the Democrats harder to the left with the agenda of Democratic Socialism.
The truth is that the current Government has been well and truly discredited but the good news for Labour is that this is not seen as their fault, rather a result of the undermining influence of the Greens and NZ First. Kiwis will deem that Jacinda needs a fair go without their interference and so Labour stands a very good chance of re-election. The real game changer though will be Act, who having raided the good parts of NZ Firsts support base (the gun lobby etc) is now on a roll and could well hit double figures which – if the Greens fail to make 5% – will make it a very very close race.
The science of climate change goes into models, because it’s the only way we can “see” the future in such a complex system with all kinds of variables, including solar cycles and cosmic rays (that seed clouds). So we shouldn’t talk consensus – we should talk models.
Ouch. All the models have thus far badly failed as predictive tools, to measure the future. So much for the science on a “catastrophe” is in.
The science is in on the idea that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but whether it’s going to have a major, minor, or even positive impact is as totally argumable as ever.
That ‘consensus’ is a political invention. So stop panicking, Bob. The planet has had literally about 5x the CO2 concentration of today and it was far greener for it. The plants love it because it makes them drought tolerant. So do food crops.
Polls are notorious for giving misleading results. However the polls over the last couple of months just can’t be taken seriously. Who do the ‘pollsters’ ask about their probable voting? I get the feeling that there’s a ‘short list’ who keep getting polled. With the expected result. I don’t bet but if I did I’d bet that the election result will look a lot different to the latest ‘poll’. Maybe not for nz first and hopefully worse for the kermits I think the difference between the nats and the fairy queen will be small, within 10 points. And I’m picking that act is going to be the decider. They are going to poll better than these rubbish polls are indicating.
Climate change is big – but social media is the biigest challenge. If left as it is, it will use things like climate change to really screw things up.
Better to fight the climate change velots than bang your head against social media I fear!
This is really scarey:-
I have been put under such an enormous group pressure in recent days from all over the world that has become virtually unbearable to me. If this is going to continue I will be unable to conduct my normal work and will even start to worry about my health and safety. I see therefore no other way out therefore than resigning from GWPF. I had not expecting such an enormous world-wide pressure put at me from a community that I have been close to all my active life. Colleagues are withdrawing their support, other colleagues are withdrawing from joint authorship etc.
I see no limit and end to what will happen. It is a situation that reminds me about the time of McCarthy. I would never have expecting anything similar in such an original peaceful community as meteorology. Apparently it has been transformed in recent years.
Lennart Bengtsson
Part of Lennarts resignation letter. Resigned after a paper was rejected because it “didn’t fit the narrative. Attacked and bullied for his opinion. And this is from a science community which should embrace all opinions and challenge each opinion and other with facts and science. Actually terrifying in its significance.
https://electroverse.net/the-list-scientists-who-publicly-disagree-with-the-current-consensus-on-climate-change/
Lists the scientists with varying opinions not supporting the Climate Change movement. There are many not blinkered and brave enough to make their points.
Frankly, I see the earth’s growing population as a way bigger issue than Climate Change.
Has anyone else noticed that it “appears” to be the poorest who have the most off spring. I get that it is part of our survival instinct. Important to desert and famine prone countries BUT Social Welfare loving NZ? Or is Social Welfare actually the problem?
Hmmmm!
If the young and new voters turn out then the Greens will reach their 5%. Most of these voters, with fewer assets, vote entirely on idealism. I would like to see a National/Act coalition and would grudgingly accept NZF if they had to be included, but I feel that National have failed to fire this election. They are tired looking, lacking charisma, and not providing sufficient alternatives to what Labour is offering
Agreed. Their tv ad is achingly dull…can’t believe this is the best they could do. Watched it with the sound off the other night and it was risible how grannyish it looked visually. Not that the Lab one is much better…
Theedgeisnigh
Agree with your comment re Joyce. What a shame we don’t have an English/Joyce combo to take us through these troubled times instead of the hapless lot running the country at the moment.
During the GFC the first thing Key/English/Joyce govt did was to review spending line by line. Spending had to be justified. That discipline was one of the reasons we emerged from the GFC much earlier than predicted. Look at this lot. Spray money around like confetti. No accountability as to whether money is well spent. Free tertiary education to increase enrolments by 15%. What happened, enrolments fell 3.2%. What a waste of money. So indicative of this government.
I am reminded a lot of unexpected election wins by the “centre right” in Britain and Australia in recent years. This mistaken polling phenomenon may be a feature of our time. I believe in the USA, people are unwilling to tell a pollster they are a Republican, but surely things are not this bad in Britain and Australia. There must be something else going on, so that centre-right voters are not being picked up by the polling techniques.
I can’t wait for the election !
Alas the youth. Fore they will inherit the Earth. High on their priority is the economy. Also climate change. Let us not forget Covid.
So, going into this election, many youth after years of left wing education system brain wash, will be thinking. Socialism seems like a good idea? State housing for all, minimum basic income, tax increases for the rich, free medical, & free education.
The youth are the suckers, and losers who have bought into the covid lock down nonsense, without question. Yes, they are the dumb ass generation, armed with their degrees and qualifications, that believe everything they see on a 4 inch screen, is the truth. Their future suffering, they have bought upon themselves through ignorance of the reality of what mass media manipulation has done.
Alas the Elderly. Fore they are soon to leave this earth. High on their priority is Covid. The youth spend and debt to save them from infection is limitless. Pensions, healthcare, must be maintained and paid for by all. Let us not forget, they have enjoyed the fruits of capitalism.
Irrespective of which part of the society you consider. The Youth and the Elderly, really do feel they are entitled to this.
Let’s do this, Lets keep moving!
The biggest threat facing the world today by a long, long way, is overpopulation. Any other issues don’t even come close. Besides, those other issues are a result of the former. But nobody wants to talk about it. Too scary to contemplate the action needed. Sterilisation? Compulsory euthanasia at 65? Will any politician talk of this problem? Political suicide. Best leave it to the next generation. Perhaps the movie “Logan’s Run” was not a fantasy, but a prediction.
Ironic isn’t it that we get better and better at keeping those that should be dead alive and worse and worse at teaching those that should never have children in the first place how to first keep their offspring alive, then feed them, then educate them so they don’t end up like their parents.
Logans Run may well be where we HAVE to end up.
Certainly China with its Belt and Road initiatives is preparing for when its population can’t fit just in China. They get the life rafts ready while the rest of Western civilization listens to the band playing maybe?
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