Here’s my guess for tomorrow. 

Labour:           47%

National:         33%

ACT :                 9%

If that’s the result Labour can form the government. So too if the Greens crack 5%. 

But they may not and to the distress of the media NZ First might. I’m certainly not writing them off. 

Imagine then if Winston gets 5% and the Greens miss out. Once again he will decide the government (probably Labour). 

To add to the interest there’s about a dozen seats that could go either way, such as Hutt South,   Auckland Central, the Wairapara to name but three.  


Cannabis  –  No

Euthanasia  –  Yes


I suspect ACT is going to be the bolter and get up to 10-12 % points. I think a fair few of the Auckland Chardonnay Socialists previously mentioned in these blogs are going to abandon their pretences and vote for ACT. Wont make a huge difference but I also hope National can do better than dropping to 1/3 of votes cast.

    Nicely predicted. Obviously Act picked up many frustrated Nat voters. Great to see.
    Greens is a tradgey but at least the bolting horse doesn’t need them to form a Government which may save us from a wealth tax. Even if she drags them into Govt she can ignore them like key did with the Maori.
    Sickening to see the daily rags and morning TV sprooking how Cindy won over a nation. What bollocks. She scared the bejesus our of the old and dopey convincing them she was there to save them all NO MATTER THE COST.
    Many of her xtra votes came from Winnie who, thank everything, has told his last lie and taken his corrupt buddies with him.
    I feel sorry for Judith trying to drag a bunch of losers over the line. Hope she stays long enough to have a massive cleanup. And I want to see the leaker in stocks in the town square. Auction off the first rotten egg throw for charity.

Further to my earlier comment-I think the greens will vanish. Probably a good thing, as they need to move on from their student politics, and come up with some better more positive policy.

    Ohh please be right but I fear you are wrong.
    I will get very very drunk tomorrow night if Winston and the Greens vanish like a f#*t in the wind.

    Well-here I am post election. I got that bit about the greens badly wrong. Seems to be a case of better the devil you know, but the voting does seem to be split along the lines of “people who get money vs people who create money” . I think this may actually be a poisoned chalice as the Labour govt now has to deal with the post lockdown economic bloodbath.

      And with no one but themselves to legitimately blame.
      Given we don’t have builders, engineers, specialists who can finish transmission Gully how can they start any real projects in the next 3 years. Look for immigration to skyrocket along with project costs.

I think you’re about right the Labour vote is more likely to be closer to 45%. The interesting thing also will be how many Act voters electorate vote National. National could likely end up with only a couple of List MPs and hold basically all their seats. Greens I think will get over the line. If they do the electoral math will show a dilution of Labour by a couple of points.

If the TAB ran a book on ardern staying 3 years even if she is still the PM after the election….I’d be saying no she won’t. Almost guarantee it.

    With absolute power she may stay.
    And she has already said she is going to swan off around the world because she has suddenly become NZs best salesman and trade negotiator. Who knew???
    She might be sponsored by the NZ Orthodontics Association

Labour 44
National 33
ACT 12
Greens 4

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: