On and on the political commentators go, babbling sheer nonsense about the bloody polls. They shouldn’t need me to tell them; the polls do not work with politics anymore and haven’t done since the turmoil after-effect of Rogernomics which threw our hitherto political predictability into uncertainty. Specifically, they turned the former National-Labour split into a new, arguably better scenario in which the biggest voting bloc was now centralist and open-minded.
It’s a disgrace that our political journalists don’t do their homework. Have they forgotten Jim Bolger’s famous post-1993 election utterance, “Bugger the polls” in which after only a single term, and contrary to the polls, he nearly lost the election. Or more recently, the Auckland mayoralty election which, according to the polls called a 50/50 result but produced a huge landslide for Wayne Brown. And thank God for that. At last a mayor interested in cost-cutting rather than indulgent spending.
Two years back on this blog I accurately forecast Jacinda would announce her resignation in late December 2022, or alternatively, early January this year, as indeed she did. To work that out wasn’t hard albeit no-one has had sufficient curiosity to ask me why, one reason why I shall very soon end this blog.
As I’ve said for over 2 years now, we’re looking at a massive landslide in the coming election in which Labour will be decimated. The hopeless Greens will survive through some disenchanted Labour voters giving them their vote. Act will gain 20ish MPs, thank God again (even though he doesn’t exist) as they may hopefully be able to introduce grossly overdue changes and in particular end the undemocratic maori bias nonsense.
And what of Winston? Being half-maori he, as always, with his finger to the wind, will have a monopoly in speaking the truth on the outrageously undemocratic maori favouritism which just may garner him the necessary 5%. But if he marginally falls short then these anti-government votes will see 3 or 4 more Labour MPs remain, than would otherwise occur.
Meanwhile, it’s deja-vu of 1984 when a desperately flailing Muldoon travelled the world being photographed with diverse world-leaders. Hipkins is doing like-wise but it won’t garner him a single vote and in 3 months he will find himself yesterday’s man, as with Muldoon back in 1984.
Meanwhile, it would certainly help the Nats if someone would tell Luxon to take his bloody hands out of his pockets as he so often is shown in photographs. That said, far too much is made of the leaders’ image by journoes as an election factor as repeated elections prove. None were more so than Churchill being dumped shortly after the war ended despite being widely accorded “great leader” saviour status.
34 Comments
Sir Bob – It will be a sad day when you end your blog. You are undoubtedly the most astute commentator around and, thank God, not afraid to say what needs to be said. I trust your forecast of the election results comes to fruition – the country deserves better.
If it’s all the same to you, I’d very much prefer you don’t end this blog.
Sad to hear you will be closing the blog.
Entertaining delivery of opinion is sadly lacking these days and you did provide a glimmer of that.
So sad to read this blog will be coming to an end. It is always entertaining and often educational. It cheers me up almost every time.
I have struggled to leave comments here – I am a dinosaur!
Everyone except journalists of course ( other than Mr Soper) predicted Jacinda Ardern’s resignation.
We simply stood back and waited.
No ones asked you re Jacinda getting out because we all know that the reason is that she doesn’t want to look like a loser when labour bite the dust. She can then bask in the glory of becoming the very popular undefeated PM.
Poor old Chippy will be the loser that cost labour victory.
PS Don’t end your blog, it is our only source of sanity.
Pinning this post to the wall so that after the election I can show people how accurate Bob is yet again.
It would be shame to see the blog go away. I’ve only recently discovered it and it is something I look forward to each day. It has had the side effect of me tracking down ALL of Bob Jones’ books at second-hand book shops around NZ and I am currently enjoying “Full Circle” again. At least that is unlikely to all come true in the way that “Degrees For All” has.
“I shall very soon end this blog”? I hope not! This is one of the best sites for political analysis.
Not sure I will be able to cope without this blog – hope you reconsider Sir Bob – even if is the occasional blog. And thank you for you contribution to critical thought and common sense.
Why, Sir Bob(did you predict Jacinda would leave)?
Dear Sir Bob, it would be a sad day if we could no longer read your astute observations.
Can I suggest you use Chatgtp to write the blogs? Could be a bit of fun, and all you would be required to do would be give it the subject and press the “go” button!
Regards, Bruce.
I also look forward to reading your daily articles, many which make me chuckle. Thank you for everything you’ve written to date and I hope you continue. We’re lucky you still live in NZ and take an interest in the country’s affairs rather than residing in a zero income tax country.
One of the only subscriptions I haven’t pressed unsubscribe to. Please don’t go, not just yet 🙂
ACT gaining 20 seats, let’s elaborate on that prediction please.
Dave
Don’t stop these blogs! For all the reasons above.
Sir Bob , please don’t cease your ‘blogs’ until at least after the elections—- assuming Labour and its likely coalition mates get dumped. Your insights are always astute and your comments invaluable in generating strong positive vibes for all National; ACT; NZ First supporters.
No no please don’t stop this blog. You call it how it is (or should be). A sane, astute read which is better than most media columns. Don’t stop the blog!
Please tell us all why you forecast two years ago, that Jacinda would resign in late Decemebr 2022. Thank you and please do continue these blogs for as you can read, so many of us enjoy them & appreciate your comments & observations.
Why stop your blog ??
Over many years you have offered a balance to the mainstream media BS via your previous newspaper columns and more recently this blog – please keep it going
Please do not end your blog. I would REALLY miss it !
Bob, I love coming here to read your entertaining and insightful posts. Please don’t end them. I don’t believe I ever saw the one with your prediction about Ardern. Perhaps you can tell us how you came to your conclusion?
Your blogs and predictions are always worth reading and very insightful. I hope you are right about the election!!
What? The only excuse for stopping the most intelligent blog in NZ (if not the world) will be when you’re incapacitated. I hope that is still a long way off.
Your blog posts are always thoughtful and I like to read them with a critical eye to see if I can oppose them in any way. Steel sharpens steel and your intellect is made of very strong stuff.
I wish you well with whatever you pursue and I’m grateful for the lessons that you’ve taught, the humor and inspiration you have provided. I’ve explored many interesting places by traveling on trains and for this I can thank you also.
Laughter is the best medicine and on that note I read today that staff at a British wildlife sanctuary had to separate five rowdy parrots that we’re encouraging each other to keep cussing and telling people to f*** off.
Personally I’d pay to see such a spectacle.
Why did you think (accurately) so long ago that Jacinda would resign in December 2022
Sir Bob, I very much enjoy hearing your opinions uncensored in terms of the prevailing, and always changing, cultural and political propaganda. Incredible how rare it is to find anything comparable in our newspapers and other media. Will miss it as a confirmation of sanity among a tsunami of ideological verbage.
Hi Sir Bob, I’ve only been recently introduced to your blog and really love your insights! I’d like to join all these others and implore you to keep writing!
Dear Sir Robert,
I implore you to continue this blog. It is utterly refreshing to read your wisdom, and wit. As opposed to the, at best, half offerings of the same from our so called journalists.
Say it isn’t so !! This is about the only online thing I read now.
Please don’t finish Sir Bob
I for one would love to hear from Sir Bob about the comings and goings of Jacinda. Most of 2022 was given over to the “when?” question because a lot of us could see coming wreck.
Sir Bob, I don’t want your blog to stop either, you’ve heard all the reasons … If you reconsider continuing with it, and you need assistance, I would be prepared to volunteer my time and proofreading skills. allend@xtra.co.nz. 063767100
Good God (whoever he/ she is), man! Pulling up sticks?! Thank goodness for your Blog. It is all that keeps me sane. I run a shop and regularly have morons come in spouting rubbish. I am under strict instructions from my wife not to indulge in political discussions as it will turn customers away. However, I don’t always do as I am told. The sum effect of these morons is to depress me and your blog is the only thing to lighten my day. You are oft quoted to friends.
Hi Bob, reading this blog makes my day. It has taught me a way of thinking that I am very grateful for.
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