By late last year support for the Scottish National Party’s independence movement was polling at 50%, I suspect reflecting Brexit fatigue.
But with the economic depression ahead, I suspect the SNP support will dwindle. Such crises invariably see a conservative voter response with no mood for radicalism. Staying part of the United Kingdom will feel more secure. Were I a Scot I might well vote SNP as I like small states and think Scotland could become another Switzerland, so don’t interpret my comments as anti – SNP.
It’s academic anyway as Boris has no intention of allowing another referendum and be branded the Prime Minister who destroyed the Union.
If he was bold then he should. Polls say the English would happily be rid of Northern Ireland which apart from other considerations, is a financial drain on the Union. I suspect the English would feel differently though about losing Scotland.
But they wouldn’t really lose it in any meaningful sense if it was independent. Rather, everything would carry on exactly as before, be it trade, tourism, sporting competition or what have you.
Aside from that, currently the EU would pose problems, first because any new member states have to accept the Euro as their currency and that would be devastating for a Scottish nation, as it has been for Southern Europe. The EU is currently fragile. Only the abandonment of the Euro will hold it together.
We certainly live in interesting times.