It’s clear NZ First will go into the next election with Winston Peters at the helm. He’s been here before, notably after 2008 when for the first time since he formed his Party nearly three decades back, it was out of Parliament. He’s the Lazarus of New Zealand politics, and will rise again, specially in the current flux.
While his motives were revenge in not opting for National in 2017, I was pleased as I don’t like four term governments and second, another defeat would probably have seen the demise of Labour and with it our broadly satisfactory two (principal) parties system.
This time Winston has rich pickings to exploit. He’s well aware that this government is hopeless in a crisis and of the growing disenchantment and will attack them in a way National and to a lesser extent ACT, are not game to do.
Specifically, he will hone in on undemocratic maori favouritism which has understandably brought in its wake, a race-based division and much anger. But most of all he will target the terrible economic impact of the government’s inept hiding under the bed response to Covid. As I’ve written before; they will not only be swept out of office in the next election but decimated, in line with the old political truism that Oppositions don’t win elections; governments lose them. The sole exception to that over the past century was Muldoon in 1975.
So I’m picking a coalition government in 2023 comprising National with circa 38% and ACT and NZ First with another 22% or thereabouts, split between them.
The irony about this situation is that Winston is probably the most disliked politician of the last 20 years. But it doesn’t matter, if 10% or so love him, that’s enough to be a highly effective player, as we saw in 2017.
11 Comments
Sounds plausible, he, almost alone, has the courage and credentials to call out the ethno nationalist He Puapua disgrace. The lovies will have a fit of accusations of racism course, adding to the spectacle. That’ll leave ACT and National to concentrate on Labour’s drain circling education, crime, civil liberties and economic disasters. I can hardly wait.
Hi Bob,
I think that Winston could actually go with Labour. This may be possible, on your figures, with 40% left spread between Labour / Greens and possible the Maori party. He will of course have to get above 10%, otherwise he may not be needed by National on your figures.
The reason is that he will have more control and power, as he did in the term with Labour, which National is less likely to give him.
Also means that at the next election he has a better chance of survival as National voters are more incline to vote for him if the numbers look close to keep the Greens out.
Should he go with National, he would more likely be a “Winston one term wonder” again.
However I very much doubt that Winston will be telling anybody this !
Bursy
Judith will never make P.M. and they know it. To achieve anything in the thirties National will have to find a new leader, and do so before the end of this year. So get on with it National. Will Nicola Willis put her hand up?
Yes Brenda, Nicola would make a great PM: hard working, bright, articulate. In short, everything the current incumbent isn’t. Plus she’s a natural foil for the idiotic Jacinda Mania among women and the protective (but delusional) dad syndrome among men “of a certain age”.
Sorry, but it may need to be a male, to take a few more risks to challenge the minority…
I was just wondering what old Winston was up. Glad he is still having a go even if I have never voted for him.
I always liked Winston – except when he fails to deliver his policy promises and his utu moment in 2017!
In political alignment surveys NZ First always came out top for me, and as indicated the rich trove of hot button topics available to dissect next election will probably see that pattern repeated.
I’m wondering, hoping actually, that Wilson is gathering evidence against the narrow and brutal Covid-19 elimination strategy that Jacinda, Ashley and the gravy train of medical sychophants have forced onto us all. The house of cards is failing quickly and it would be remiss of Winston to neglect such an opportunity.
He might consider the massive debt we’ve all inherited, and that hardly any was spent on increased ICU capacity. The massive social devastation of deferred or cancelled medical diagnises and procedures, the abject failure of Jacinda’s political raison d’etre – ‘poverdy’ elimination. The stealthy imposition of He Puapua and the divisive outcome that awaits us and future generations.
Tuck in Winston, the feast awaits you!
Parliament needs someone like Winston, to ask the hard questions.
Labour definitely lack his experience, and have been found wanting; to the point of being useless around economic matters.
Its wishful thinking, but a Seymour and Winston government is the best option at present. No doubt Luxton will appear for National, and hopefully Bridges is a casualty with this, as most have had enough of Bridges arrogance. He’s as slimy as the stuff he puts in his hair.
Hello Sir Robert
Unfortunately I do not agree with you entirely on this occasion.
Winston Peters has proven time and time again his main concern will always be, Winston Peters.
No better than a confidence trickster.
I do hope your right this government will be gone at our next election, though remain astounded people were so gullible in believing the promises made by Jacinda prior to her re-election. She is in fact completely aligned to the Green party and convinced their ideals will bring us a socialist utopia.
Thank you for giving NZ another voice.
Jennifer
Well said Jennifer!. Jacinda would be a better fit in the greens party than she is in traditional labour
I can’t see her getting on with the likes of pragmatists like Mike Moore very well
Yes – but half his support base will never forgive him for giving us the Labour-Greens abomination, which was against democratic prediction.