Ignore the latest Newshub poll. Polls no longer reveal election day realities.
I’ve witnessed 25 elections since 1949 as a just turned 10 year old, that memorable for the shock of seeing my father tearful listening to Prime Minister Peter Fraser’s concession speech on Sunday morning.
Polls no longer represent the reality for all sorts of reasons. Here’s some well known examples.
On the eve of the Brexit vote all pollsters had it level pegging. How spectacularly wrong they were. Or the last Australian Federal election in which without exception over the previous 3 years, every poll had a solid Labour lead. How non-sensical that proved to be. Or Trump’s election. For 3 months prior Huffington Post had, (they claimed) independent pollsters reporting daily. Over the last month they dropped the odds of a Trump victory from 40% down to 2% on election day.
Pollsters have what they believe are a sampling cross-section of voters. But modern society has never been more diverse and the majority of voters these days are far less politically tribalistic than yesteryear.
Another factor can be a reluctance to admit one’s voting intentions, even to a stranger over the telephone. That is commonly attributed to the Trump success.
The 25 elections I’ve witnessed since my 10th birthday all produced outcomes predictable at the time via the prevailing public mood. Right now the mood is worse than the pervading despair of 1983-4 yet, back then the polls still had National basically level-pegging. But from the day Muldoon called a snap election, in accord not with the polls but instead the public mood, everyone knew the government was doomed.
Our government is totally out of its depth, Jacindamania is now dead in the water, there’s anger everywhere and it will get worse.
Inflation will go crazy in New Zealand over the next two years and not for the conventional causes the Reserve Bank talk about.
Rather, massive labour shortages will drive up wages and costs. The principal reasons will be a flight to Australia for incomes as much as twice prevailing here while the cost of living is much cheaper. Seemingly every day the Australian media are reporting spectacularly higher than the norm, wage and salary offers from desperate employers.
Prime Minister Morrison has announced an aggressive immigration policy which appears to be supported by the Opposition. He’s ambitious to double the population but most of all to alleviate Australia’s labour problem, something facing most developed countries due to declining birthrates.
As I’ve often written on this blog there will be world-wide competition for people to off-set the falling labour force. This is posing serious problems in central Europe as their young head westward seeking higher incomes and more vibrant life-styles.
Meanwhile, seemingly oblivious to all of this our government confines migration to short term fruit pickers for God’s sake.
As I’ve written often before, the best thing to ever happen to this country was the Asian migration, now nearly a fifth of our population. We should be opening up and encouraging Asian migrants, albeit whether they’ll opt for New Zealand over Australia is now questionable.
I believe we will be in dire economic straits come the next election which is why I’m predicting a massive landslide from an angry electorate.