Ignore the latest Newshub poll. Polls no longer reveal election day realities.
I’ve witnessed 25 elections since 1949 as a just turned 10 year old, that memorable for the shock of seeing my father tearful listening to Prime Minister Peter Fraser’s concession speech on Sunday morning.
Polls no longer represent the reality for all sorts of reasons. Here’s some well known examples.
On the eve of the Brexit vote all pollsters had it level pegging. How spectacularly wrong they were. Or the last Australian Federal election in which without exception over the previous 3 years, every poll had a solid Labour lead. How non-sensical that proved to be. Or Trump’s election. For 3 months prior Huffington Post had, (they claimed) independent pollsters reporting daily. Over the last month they dropped the odds of a Trump victory from 40% down to 2% on election day.
Pollsters have what they believe are a sampling cross-section of voters. But modern society has never been more diverse and the majority of voters these days are far less politically tribalistic than yesteryear.
Another factor can be a reluctance to admit one’s voting intentions, even to a stranger over the telephone. That is commonly attributed to the Trump success.
The 25 elections I’ve witnessed since my 10th birthday all produced outcomes predictable at the time via the prevailing public mood. Right now the mood is worse than the pervading despair of 1983-4 yet, back then the polls still had National basically level-pegging. But from the day Muldoon called a snap election, in accord not with the polls but instead the public mood, everyone knew the government was doomed.
Our government is totally out of its depth, Jacindamania is now dead in the water, there’s anger everywhere and it will get worse.
Inflation will go crazy in New Zealand over the next two years and not for the conventional causes the Reserve Bank talk about.
Rather, massive labour shortages will drive up wages and costs. The principal reasons will be a flight to Australia for incomes as much as twice prevailing here while the cost of living is much cheaper. Seemingly every day the Australian media are reporting spectacularly higher than the norm, wage and salary offers from desperate employers.
Prime Minister Morrison has announced an aggressive immigration policy which appears to be supported by the Opposition. He’s ambitious to double the population but most of all to alleviate Australia’s labour problem, something facing most developed countries due to declining birthrates.
As I’ve often written on this blog there will be world-wide competition for people to off-set the falling labour force. This is posing serious problems in central Europe as their young head westward seeking higher incomes and more vibrant life-styles.
Meanwhile, seemingly oblivious to all of this our government confines migration to short term fruit pickers for God’s sake.
As I’ve written often before, the best thing to ever happen to this country was the Asian migration, now nearly a fifth of our population. We should be opening up and encouraging Asian migrants, albeit whether they’ll opt for New Zealand over Australia is now questionable.
I believe we will be in dire economic straits come the next election which is why I’m predicting a massive landslide from an angry electorate.
16 Comments
You are on the money with this post
Prescient comments. Leave now whilst your money is worth something. As a very apt example, I left post earthquake. We went from just hanging on ( 1 income new family) in NZ to now owning our house freehold, owning rental properties, sending our daughter to a private school and having a 6 figure sum already in superannuation etc largely via the same industry in Australia. I’m not in SRJ league-few are- but I’m way out in front of where I would be in NZ.
Money is only one part of the attraction, as I find I barely recognise NZ when I occasionally visit but nonetheless money is a good part.
Why would I consider returning?
How long did it take you to be freehold?
is that on double income ? what percentage of pay difference ?
When I was in GB back in the early eighties it seemed everyone hated Mrs Thatcher. They despised her policies and cried almost in unison that she was ruining the country. She never led in any poll as people assured the survey takers of their Thatcher Hating credentials.
And yet come every election day the great majority of voters rolled up and gave her their vote. Why? Simple really; they were all getting wealthier every day under her policies. They hated her but they knew bloody well she was good for them.
This will work in reverse here. Jacinda will lead in all polls right up to the one that counts. At polling day kiwis will vote according to the economy and how they’re personally doing. They won’t vote Labour.
Excellent synopsis Sir Bob. Sadly this arrogant, blinkered Govt refuse to see. I actually don’t believe we will have to wait until 2023, the winds are blowing strongly now……
Sir Robert, I have not seen the result of the latest Roy Morgan poll published anywhere in New Zealand mainstream media. Why would that be? Maybe the results from Labours own pollsters are not what they desire to publish? https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8892-nz-national-voting-intention-january-2022-202202072332
That poll is a disaster for the Left. Extraordinary that it was not headline news last week.
The vile stupidity and cruelty of this Government’s treatment of immigrants is only going to get worse if media reports are correct. So it is a question of how much damage will be done until there is a change of government.
Agree, couldn’t have said it better.
Right now the real problem is not the landslide against Labour (that seems to be a given) but who on earth is a viable Opposition that could lead NZ out of this chaos? Greens (not a hope in hell!), Maori party (likewise with bells on), National (Labour in sheep’s clothing)….so who? My greatest fear is that a snap election is called whilst there is a lack of a viable opposition and that Labour could win that by default. At present I cannot think of a single leader of a political party who could rally the population to throw out the current disaster and lead the country out of this chaos. Any realistic suggestions anyone?
Polling in Muldoon’s final term of office has always intrigued me. When Rowling quit and Lange took over there was a sugar rush towards Labour; a strong Labour lead between February and August 1983.
Then you, Sir Robert, announced your party and a large chunk of people came to their senses, remembered they weren’t Labour supporters, switched their support to the NZ Party and Muldoon retook the lead between September 1983 to May 1984. As late as the May school holidays (7 weeks from election day) a person could have been forgiven for placing a bet on Muldoon winning a 4th term.
Election day 1984 itself was even more bizarre – a large swing from 1981 Social Credit voters to National (such as in Jim Bolger’s electorate, or Kaipara, or Rangitikei); a large swing from National to the NZ Party; yet no real swing to speak of from National to Labour.
The results in places like Hawkes Bay or East Cape or Glenfield was more about a swing from National to the NZ Party than National to Labour (just ask the 3 Labour candidates who found, to their astonishment, they were MPs). There was even the odd situation of swings ‘to’ National in six South Island electorates.
None of this could have been predicted at Christmas 1982 – 19 months out from election day.
Yes Chris, the trend is clear and, not to forget, Roy Morgan have consistently been the closest to the only poll that really matters; the actual election.
Christopher Luxton has a long way to go. If he thinks that he is going to win the the next election by hosting corporate dinner party’s in Remuera, he has another thing coming.
NZ is ‘Angry’, yes that is the word. Lot’s of unhappy NZer’s.
Who used the word ‘mandate’ 2 or 3 years ago? You never heard it.
Landslide, that will do me. Even tsunami, washing them away, that would be good as well.
This is bizarre in that every immigrant has to be housed ,fed and watered which puts more demand on all those services which then creates more demand for population. This looks to me like a never-ending cycle–can’t anyone else see this? On one hand ScoMo is putting millions into saving the Koala but promoting more immigrants, therefore more houses and thus removal of Koala habitat. I can’t see both co-existing.
I agree totally with this Sir Bob.
This government has been utterly inept at their economic management, the surge in COVID exposes their rhetoric about keeping NZ safe as a sham, theyve set kiwi against kiwi and theyve trampled on civil rights. The most disturbing behaviour has been the impounding of people with essentially no rights in ‘managed isolation’ and effectively normalising the guarding of thwse prisoners by the NZ military. Truely chilling..